Rivals delay implementing peace accord

An Organisation of African Unity (OAU) envoy expected in Madagascar "soon" will have to pull out all the stops to prevent the island's rival leaders from violating last week's peace accord signed in Senegal, analysts told IRIN. President Didier Ratsiraka and millionaire opposition leader Marc Ravalomanana reportedly signed the accord under pressure from the OAU on the sidelines of a New Partnership for African Development conference. It was hoped that the agreement would end their three-month crisis over the presidency. The dispute saw Ravalomanana declare himself president on 22 February and take control of the capital, Antananarivo. In retaliation, Ratsiraka moved his government to the coast, blockaded the capital and cut off essential supplies. The accord binds the men to honouring the outcome of a vote recount being conducted by the country's High Constitutional Court, and to a transitional power-sharing government if no clear winner emerges from the recount. It detailed clearly how the transitional body would be constituted, saying it should not last more than six months, by which time a referendum should be held for the Malagasy people to choose whether they want Ratsiraka or Ravalomanana to lead them. It also called on Ratsiraka to ensure that all roadblocks were lifted. On Tuesday, however, almost all the roadblocks remained in place. The country's six provincial governors decided they would only dismantle them after Ratsiraka was returned to power. Ravalomanana, on the other hand, refused to dismantle his government until the results of the recount, expected in about one week, were announced. The impasse has led to questions about who is in power in the interim, especially since Ratsiraka has not returned to the country since signing the accord. "The decision of the governors not to lift the barricade is a sign of total disrespect not only for the Malagasy people, but also the African and international diplomats who worked hard to reach the agreement. One of the conditions of the accord was the immediate lifting of the barricade, but it seems that Ratsiraka has no control over his followers," Desire Ramakavelo, professor of history at the University of Madagascar, told IRIN. Remy Ralibera, also a professor of history at the university, said the accord did not clarify who was in control of the country while the recount or revote took place. A difficulty, he said, was "how either candidate is going to explain this [the accord] to the electorate without coming across as if they have made too many concession". However, OAU Secretary General Amara Essy said at the weekend that according to the Dakar agreement, Ratsiraka was in control until a new election. Speaking to reporters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, on Saturday, he admitted the accord was "fragile", but urged both men to put the country's interests before their own. "There must be a lot of explanations to their supporters and it takes time because we agree that none of the two parties was fully satisfied with the agreement. Each of them has showed reticence, but at the end has made concessions on behalf of the country's supreme interests," Essy said. Commenting on the fact that the blockades were still in place on Saturday, he added: "It is a very complex situation and the resentments are so deep that I am not surprised by this reaction." Essy said the foreign affairs ministers of Senegal, Mozambique, Benin and Cote d'Ivoire - which brokered the agreement under the auspices of the OAU - would visit Madagascar soon to ease tensions, along with a soon-to-be appointed special envoy. Meanwhile, leading Malagasy business leaders and economists on Tuesday slammed the governors' decision, saying that the government's surprise turn-around could prove disastrous for the already crumbling economy. "All the economic indicators are already red in the country. The governors’ decision only makes an already bad situation worse," Pepe Andrianomanana, Professor of Economics at the University of Madagascar, told IRIN. Andrianomanana added that should the blockades remain in place much longer, the agricultural sector would be hardest hit. "Agriculture is the backbone of the island. Small farmers are the worst off. They depend on the country’s roads and bridges to transport their produce. The barricades block their delivery routes ... If the barricades are left in place, we may see a complete collapse of the agriculture sector in the country," he said. One political analyst at the University of Madagascar told IRIN that the flight of international investment in the wake of the protracted crisis was inevitable. "The island's fast-growing textile industry is bearing the brunt of the crisis as much of its success relies on delivery to deadlines. The blockades have hampered access to the main port, Tamatave, making it impossible for manufacturers to meet orders." He added: "Government coffers are beginning to dry up as businesses either pay a fraction of tax or refuse to pay altogether, simply because they aren't making any money themselves." Click here for more details on the accord