Low winter rainfall

Pakistan's leading weather expert has predicted a below normal winter rainfall in the country, still reeling from three years of drought. Although the drought officially ended in May 2001, one of the country's two main reservoirs remains short of water. Dr Qamar-Uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director General of Pakistan's Meteorological Department, told IRIN that 10-20 percent below normal rains were expected this winter though he added it should not have a major impact on agriculture, the mainstay of Pakistan's economy. Pakistan suffered from severe drought from 1998 until mid-2001, when normal rainfall during last summer's monsoon replenished supplies. Drought turned millions of hectares of cultivable land in the southern provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan into parched wasteland, forcing thousands of people to relocate. The loss of agricultural production had a significant impact on Pakistan's economy. Zaman said the period October to December was generally not a rainy time in Pakistan but this year it was drier than usual. "Now it's the winter rainy period, i.e. January to March, a time when most of our northern areas and catchment areas receive rainfall and snowfall, we are expecting that during this period rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal, 10 to 20 percent below normal on all Pakistan basis," he predicted. Zaman and other government officials have said the impact of the drought remains, with water levels at key reservoirs below normal. Mangla dam in Punjab province and Tarbela dam in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) are the country's two main sources of water for irrigation and hydroelectric power. During the last monsoon, although Tarbela reached its full capacity, Mangla remained about 6 metres below its maximum capacity. Zaman said although Pakistan was passing through a "dry decade" in which there would be less than normal rainfall most seasons, he didn't envisage further drought. "I don’t think drought will come back," he said. In the previous wet period, most years had above average rainfall. But Zamman said the 1998 drought signaled the start of an extended dry period. "Therefore, there is definitely a necessity that we should plan for this dry period," he added. Careful planning based on accurate weather predictions has saved Pakistan's agriculture-dependent economy millions of dollars in the past.