MPLA reviews president's planned retirement

The central committee of Angola's ruling MPLA met in the capital Luanda of Friday to discuss, among other things, President Jose Eduardo dos Santos' decision not to contest the next election. With the committee still locked in discussion late in the afternoon, a diplomatic source dismissed a recent press report that Dos Santos was expected to announce a unilateral ceasefire against Jonas Savimbi's rebel movement UNITA. He said that while many people were speculating, the government's intention was not clear. However, he added: "If this happens it would be a good sign that the government is sending to the international community and to UNITA as well." The source told IRIN that while no specific timeframes for setting up contact between UNITA and the government had been set, all the stakeholders in the process understood the urgency. The MPLA and UNITA have not communicated at all since 1998, when it became evident that the 1994 Lusaka peace agreement was faltering and all-out civil war broke out again. Savimbi, along with other senior UNITA members, has been on the run ever since, under severe UN sanctions. "The timeframe really depends on what is going on the ground," the source told IRIN. By Friday, military activity across the country had not decreased in spite of the positive developments. According to a humanitarian source, hundreds of internally displaced persons (IDPS) continue to flee to safety this week. The source said that while current figures were not available, the number of people fleeing their homes indicated continued military activity and also worsening hunger in areas not accessible to humanitarian organisations. He said that from 17-23 December, 1,300 new IDPs were registered in Luena, the capital of the eastern Moxico province where the Angolan Armed Forces (FAA) have been on the offensive in recent months. Savimbi is believed to be hiding in the province. The source said the majority of IDPs were fleeing from the central-northern Malanje province and from Cuando Cubango in the southeast. "Among these people are severely malnourished children who are being picked up by FAA helicopters and transported to Luena," he said. Meanwhile, according to Oxford Analytica, Dos Santos' retirement or the elimination of Savimbi "would be likely to catalyse a sudden and even turbulent reordering of the country's power elites", with a number of senior aids vying for power. Dos Santos, who has been in power since 1979, announced in August that he would not contest the next election, for which a date has not yet been set. A likely presidential candidate could be Fernando Piedaded dos Santos, alias 'Nando', the think-tank said in a report this week. According to the report, the interior minister, head of the domestic security services and co-ordinator of the government's Inter-sectoral Commission for the Peace Process and National Peace and Reconciliation Fund was among the president's inner circle.