New tools for predicting epidemics

The USAID-funded Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) project and the US-based aid agency CARE have announced new tools for predicting disease epidemics. In the latest issue of the Greater Horn of Africa Food Security Update, FEWS and CARE say their growing realisation that many epidemics are triggered by climatic anomalies rather than malnutrition will create new opportunities for the early warning and forecasting of epidemics. Increased temperatures and modified rainfall patterns observed in the Horn of Africa over the last decade which have been attributed to the global-warming phenomenon could have a significant effect on the range of both vectors and the diseases they carry. Many of the major diseases affecting the Horn of Africa, such as malaria, Rift Valley fever, dengue fever, yellow fever and cholera, are all strongly influenced by climatic factors. Arguably the most important of these is malaria - and the most predictable, and dramatic upsurges of the disease are seen in places where it is normally regarded as non-endemic during periods of abnormally wet and/or warm conditions. When this information is combined with population data, then populations at risk to epidemics can more easily be identified. The Highland Malaria Project has already adopted such a model for the highland areas of Africa, and it indicates large populations at risk in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi. Populations in these areas are particularly vulnerable, because they do not have high levels of immunity, and local malarial control programmes are poorly resourced. The establishment of models such as this therefore make it easier for health professionals to prepare for and deal with projected epidemics.