SADC to to send task force to Zimbabwe

The South African Development Community (SADC) has established a five-country task force to facilitate dialogue in Zimbabwe to help resolve the country's political and economic crisis, but analysts contacted by IRIN said they were concerned it could be too little, too late.

At the end of the SADC summit in Malawi's commercial capital Blantyre on Tuesday, South African President Thabo Mbeki said that the task force would start work within five days and would be "talking to everybody", 'The Star' newspaper reported. According to the SADC communique: "Summit expressed concern on the effects of the Zimbabwe economic situation on the region, and indicated its readiness to engage in a dialogue with the government of Zimbabwe and other cooperating partners to resolve the situation." Representatives from Malawi, Namibia, Angola, Botswana, Mozambique and South Africa were directed to work with Harare "on the political and economic issues affecting Zimbabwe".

However, University of Zimbabwe economist Tony Hawkins told IRIN that he was sceptical over what SADC could concretely achieve. "There are now so many of these initiatives things are getting a bit crowded," he said in reference to earlier Nigerian and South African diplomatic approaches, and the upcoming Commonwealth Heads of State Meeting in October.

"The only people in SADC with real clout is South Africa, but at the moment they don't want to use it. The one card that would be very effective against Zimbabwe is sanctions, but there is no way they [South Africa] can use that card now," Hawkins said. "They may want to keep it up their sleave in case there's a military takeover or stolen elections."

Ross Herbert at the South African Institute of International Affairs said it was now clear there was unease in SADC over the potential regional fallout of Zimbabwe's meltdown. But if the task force merely "goes through the motions and says the crisis is all somehow an exercise in misunderstanding", then SADC would have failed. "There needs to be a willingness to engage and pressurise Zimbabwe, but it's unclear whether they are going to cross that bridge."

Herbert argued that "assertiveness and bluntness" from regional leaders could encourage resistance to hardliners in the ruling ZANU-PF, who appear committed to ensuring President Robert Mugabe's re-election next year, regardless of the cost in terms of human rights and the economy. "Public condemnation could be quite a useful tool against Mugabe," the analyst said.