FRELIMO parliamentary victory uncertain

As life in Mozambique returned to normal on Monday after a weekend of voting, political analysts told IRIN that the ruling FRELIMO party and the opposition former rebel movement RENAMO were in a tight race for control of the country's parliament. "Although there is very little doubt in people's minds that President Joaquim Chissano will keep his post, the outcome in parliament is very different. People just don't know," one analyst told IRIN. He said that indications were that the voter turn out was not as high as had been expected and that this could favour RENAMO - heading an opposition alliance of smaller parties - and have "a significant impact on who eventually wins a majority in parliament." "If RENAMO does take the parliament, governing Mozambique may become very difficult for Chissano. We may end up with a system where every piece of legislation will be a negotiation between the president and his parliament. This does not bode well for a country that is trying to attract foreign investment. Investors like to be assured of the fact that the president is supported by his parliament," the analyst said. In a television interview on Sunday, Chissano indicated that he would be "open to negotiations" should RENAMO take control of parliament. Former US president Jimmy Carter, who headed a 50-member monitoring team, said on Monday that the elections were "overwhelmingly free and fair." Carter was quoted in media reports as saying that Mozambicans had demonstrated "a commitment to freedom, to peace and to democracy." Carter added that he expected the counting of votes and the issuing of final results "to go well." However, at a press conference on Sunday, RENAMO leader, Afonso Dhlakama, said he had "evidence of rigging" and that he had lodged a complaint with the National Elections Commission (CNE). The CNE said that it had received no formal complaint from RENAMO, but "would thoroughly investigate any complaint that was made." According to observers in Maputo there had been a few "minor incidents" reported over the weekend. In three suburbs in Maputo, the numbers on people's registration cards did not correspond with the numbers on the voters roll. In the northern Zambezia Province a number of polling stations failed to open, resulting in an estimated 8,000 people being unable to cast their votes. According to data from the CNE there were 1.4 million voters in the province. Meanwhile, in the port city of Beira, four RENAMO officials were reportedly detained for allegedly stealing ballot papers. But according to one observer: "We have not seen nor heard of any major incidents of violence that were related to the election itself." Final election results are expected to be released either on the 19 or 20 December. In the 1994 general elections, the first multi-party polls since independence in 1975, FRELIMO won 129 seats in parliament to RENAMO's 112. The Democratic Union coalition, made of three smaller parties, scooped nine seats. The elections crowned a 1992 peace accord which ended 15-years of conflict that killed an estimated 60,000 people.