SOUTHERN AFRICA: Food security update

The 1998/1999 maize forecast for Southern Africa is expected to decline by 13 percent to 14.75 million mt compared to last year's maize output of 17.05 million mt while the region is
projected to have a maize shortfall for the 1999/2000 marketing year.

According to a food security report received by IRIN from USAID's Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), incessant rains in southern SADC countries have dampened production prospects and prolonged dry spells have depressed yields.

"Maize yields were dampened by excessive rains leading to water-logging in northern parts of Zimbabwe, southern and central Malawi, southern Zambia and central Mozambique," the report said. Production prospects were also adversely affected by dry spells in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland in
February, it added.

Maize surpluses for the 1999/2000 marketing year are projected only in South Africa (1.28 million mt), Mozambique (217,000 mt), Malawi (361,000mt) and Swaziland (18,000 mt), the report stated. However, the report stated, a SADC maize shortfall of 1.92 million mt is projected for the 1999/2000 marketing year compared to last year's regional surplus of 881,000 mt.

Angola and Tanzania are the only two SADC countries whose cereal harvests are forecast to decline, the report added. Referring to Angola, the report stated: "Despite the prevalence of favourable rainfall conditions throughout the 1998/1999 season, overall crop production is forecast to decline by 30 percent to 416,000 mt on account of reduced planted area and declining yields brought about by increased insecurity."

Late and poor short rains in Tanzania have led to a 20 percent decline in overall cereal harvest, while maize production is forecast to decline by 29 percent compared to last season's harvest of 2.68 million mt due to reduced plantings and poor yields, the report stated.