SOUTHERN AFRICA: Stalemate reached in DRC conflict

Stalemate has been reached in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) conflict which could pave the way to more constructive ceasefire negotiations, regional analysts told IRIN on Tuesday. Eastern DRC has been the key front in the war, but the rebels of the Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie (RCD) have so far been unable to take the strategic diamond centre of Mbuji-Mayi. The town, heavily defended by Zimbabwean troops, provides a major source of financing for the government's war effort and its fall would be a psychologial blow to President Laurent-Desire Kabila and his regional backers, analysts said. Despite the government's recent loss of Kakuyu en route to Mbuji-Mayi, "in strategic terms, Zimbabwe and Angola have virtually checkmated the best the rebels have been able to throw at them," Michael Quintana, the editor of the Harare-based 'Africa Defence Journal' told IRIN. Zimbabwe, with some 9,000 troops in the DRC, continues to build up its forces. "But the allies are being very cautious. If they take the offensive deep into rebel-held territory they may come up short," Quintana said. "The allies want a negotiated settlement now," a Harare-based regional observer told IRIN. Kabila has indicated his willingness to talk face-to-face with the RCD as part of an internal political settlement. "Kabila's government is in deep, deep financial trouble," Richard Cornwell of South Africa's Institute of Security Studies told IRIN. "But he will try and string out negotiations for as long as possible." However, Rwanda and Uganda whose troops are supporting the RCD, may not have reached the stage where they consider their interests would be best served at the negotiating table, one political source added. "The feeling is that the anti-Kabila alliance has greater staying power," Cornwell said. Meanwhile, in an attempt to bolster pro-government forces, there have been numerous reports that Harare is training and arming Rwandan Hutu rebels. Zimbabwe's Defence Minister Moven Mahachi has denied the charge. However, according to Cornwell: "The Interahamwe and Hutu rebels are probably the most reliable fighters Kabila has got - they're fighting for their lives."