The turbulent socio-political and economic situation in the Horn of Africa in 2008 is likely to continue on into 2009, according to Oxford Analytica's forecast for the region.
In their PROSPECTS 2009: Horn of Africa's challenges grow (5 November), Oxford Analytica forecasts that in 2009, the region “will continue to see some of the world's worst humanitarian, political and security crises”.
“Food insecurity will be a major factor across the region, contributing to economic pressures from high prices and decreased remittances.
Somalia's TFG and moderate opposition face a steep challenge in implementing the Djibouti Agreement, despite likely Ethiopian withdrawal.
Ethiopia's border stalemate with Eritrea will continue, though the cost of war is probably too high for both sides.”
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