Taking it to the streets

The Zimbabwean government has announced hefty salary increases for the security services, which some analysts claim is a political decision ahead of a threatened civil disobedience campaign by the opposition. The 200 percent salary rise for the army, police and prison services follows a promise made by President Robert Mugabe last week during independence day celebrations to review their pay. Teachers will also benefit from the increase. Political commentator Tendai Murambiwa alleged the salary hike was designed to retain the support of the security forces. "Remember, MDC [Movement for Democratic Change] president, Morgan Tsvangirai, only recently told the armed forces that they were suffering like everybody else and needed to side with the people," Murambiwa said. Senior government officials and military officers have voiced concern over the impact of Zimbabwe's economic crisis on the armed forces, with reports of increased desertions, robberies, and soldier sent home because of a lack of food in the barracks. With the new increase a junior soldier will earn around US $270 - still way below the poverty datum line of $350. In the past few days there have also been hikes of more than 1,000 percent in hospital fees, electricity and water tariffs, and school and university rates have also galloped upwards. Rejuvinated Opposition As the cost of living worsens, commentators suggest Tsvangirai's call for a "short, sharp programme of action" to challenge the government through a series of illegal street demonstrations has growing appeal in urban areas, the traditional stronghold of the MDC before it split into two factions late last year. By comparison, barely two weeks after assuring South African President Thabo Mbeki they were the future of opposition politics in Zimbabwe, the MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara is reeling from defections by senior officials. Mutambara's former allies said they had decided to quit following "consultations" with grassroots supporters. Cynics contend the defections have been triggered by the realisation the majority of MDC supporters have remained loyal to Tsvangirai, the founding party president, and approve of his more militant stance. The MDC, which has weathered intense pressure by the ruling ZANU-PF since it was formed in 1999, split over a decision by Tsvangirai to ignore a narrow vote by party leaders to participate in senate elections. Tsvangirai argued that the overall membership of the party were opposed to participating in polls the MDC could not hope to win, given the alleged unevenness of the playing field. The pro-senate faction responded that a boycott would hand ZANU-PF victory even in parts of the country that were opposition held, and in ignoring the decision by party leaders, Tsvangirai had ditched democratic procedure. The two factions confirmed the split when they held two separate congresses at the beginning of this year. Tsvangirai, a former labour leader, was retained as president by his faction, and since then has addressed large crowds at rallies across the country promising to confront ZANU-PF with popular protest to force it from power. The pro-senate faction elected Mutambara, who boasts an impressive CV as student leader turned respected academic, but he has seen his support slip over the last few weeks. National chairman Gift Chimanikire and two MPs have left his group to rejoin the senate boycotters. "I think the internal squabbles in the MDC have actually rejuvenated the opposition because Tsvangirai's popularity has been confirmed by the large number of people that have been turning up at his rallies," said acting secretary general of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, Collin Gwiyo, a key Tsvangirai ally. The government, however, has repeatedly warned that any unrest would be dealt with ruthlessly by the police. "Organs of security are there to maintain security and no sane government in this world will keep its security organs in the camps while some mischievous elements destabilise the country, even threatening to remove a democratically elected government by force," State Security Minister Didymus Mutasa was quoted as saying this week. Taking It To The Streets The MDC's track record in organising civil disobedience campaigns has been a dismal one. The party blames its failure on strict public order laws, and a partisan police and army that have remained loyal to Mugabe. The last significant protest action in 2003 - dubbed the "final push" - was a damp squib. "People have been thoroughly intimidated and frightened of what the regime can do," commented political science lecturer John Mukumbe, a long-standing critic of the government. However, he said a new element was public anger over the yawning gap between salaries and prices. Tsvangirai is "playing on the fact that people's suffering is much more intense now; the system has basically collapsed, the cost of living is unbearably high and people are getting desperate for change", alleged Mukumbe. Zimbabwe has been in recession for eight straight years. Unemployment is close to 80 percent, inflation scaled 900 percent in March, and shortages of food, foreign exchange and fuel have become a fact of life. The government blames the hardships on western "sanctions" as punishment for its land reform programme, which expropriated commercial farms and redistributed them to new black farmers. Critics say it was wrong policies that created the crisis. The economic pinch is being felt by government and opposition supporters alike. "The situation is bad for everybody, including those in the MDC and ZANU-PF, and the challenge is for all Zimbabweans, including civil society, to embark on a national effort to bring about change," remarked political analyst Heneri Dzinotyiwei, a lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe. However, Mutasa has dismissed suggestions that security force personnel were increasingly disillusioned, and could not be relied upon to crackdown on protestors. He reportedly said: "Do you think disciplined forces like the CIO [Central Intelligence Agency], the army and the police would not listen to orders or let Tsvangirai have his way?" Despite the hardships faced by Zimbabweans, Mukumbe said he did not believe ZANU-PF would be swept away by street protests anytime soon. Its leadership - which fought for the country's independence - has ruled for the past 26 years through the ballot box, although the opposition insists its election defeats have been due to rigging and intimidation. No Date Set "It's difficult to get 100,000 people on the streets of Harare [the capital], it's a problem to even get 10,000," Mukumbe acknowledged. "Zimbabweans need to be able to experience pain without flinching, and I don't think we're there yet." Tsvangirai told IRIN over the weekend that after addressing rallies in the towns, his campaign would shift to rural areas. "The democratic resistance will not be done in urban areas only. It will be in all the streets, the townships and the villages, and that is our next port of call." No date has been set for the start of the civil disobedience campaign. Few civic organisations have publicly supported the call for action, but behind the scenes there has been backing for a more robust challenge to a government seen as weakened by the economic crisis and debate within ZANU-PF over who will succeed Mugabe, 82, when he retires as expected in 2008. Mukumbe believes that Tsvangirai cannot turn back after calling for mass action, whatever turnout he manages to attract onto the streets. "He has already distinguished himself from the other faction of the MDC by saying he will take action against the dictator, and if he doesn't do it will be to his discredit." Secretary-general of the pro-senate faction, Welshman Ncube, said he was doubtful that Tsvangirai would be at the forefront of any demonstrations, as he has promised. "I wish them well but I doubt if any of them will lead from the front. I have worked with them before ... I doubt if anything will take place soon."