Africa's peacekeeper - Yearender

South Africa emerged as Africa's main troubleshooter in 2004. Whether in the crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Burundi, Cote d'Ivoire or even Sudan, South African president Thabo Mbeki's intervention - though not always successful - was sought by the African Union (AU). South Africa's role as mediator in the continent's trouble spots was proof of its commitment to the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) and its standing in the global community, argued political analyst Prof John Stremlau of the Johannesburg-based Witwatersrand University. "The peace initiatives taken up by South Africa are important to validate Mbeki's pledges to the G8 that Africa can solve its problems, and establish peace and security in the wider NEPAD framework," he commented. One advantage is the country's perceived neutrality - a product of its isolation during the apartheid years - and the triumph of its democratic elections in 1994. "South Africa understands the need for a sincere African intervention. Most of the previous interventions into continental conflicts were influenced by [post-colonial] political and economical interests," said Claude Kabemba, an analyst with the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa. South Africa has a set formula for conflict resolution, modelled on its own successful transition, noted Henri Boschoff, a military analyst at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). The first step is to get all the parties to talk to each other, followed by a multiparty transitional government until general elections are held. Kabemba lauded the mechanics of South Africa's approach to conflict resolution. "South African negotiators attempt to bring different groups together - you will see an inclusive process. We have seen a quick, more focused and genuinely transparent process, which makes the involved parties trust them." While not all initiatives last year were successful, its "biggest achievement is its staying power and total determination," said ISS analyst Jan van Eck. AMELIORATING BURUNDIAN BICKERING South Africa's involvement in Burundi is long-standing, dating back to 2000 and former president Nelson Mandela's efforts to end eight years of civil war between rebels from the majority Hutu ethnic group and the Tutsi-dominated government. His efforts resulted in an agreement under which an interim government was inaugurated in November 2001. But bickering over the allocation of positions in the Burundian government continued between the two groups, and Mbeki and his deputy, Jacob Zuma, persevered with negotiations between the parties, which finally led to the Pretoria agreement, signed on 6 August 2004, providing for a government and national assembly that would be 60 percent Hutu and 40 percent Tutsi. According to the original timetable for the transition process, elections were to have been held by November last year, but have been delayed until 2005. "The challenge now is for the UN mission to help implement the timetable: the electoral committee is in place, the voters' list has been completed, and about 3.4 million people have been registered," said Boschoff. "The referendum on the constitution is to be held this month, while further demobilisation of combatants continues this year. South Africa, which is part of the UN peacekeeping mission, will facilitate this, while monitoring the implementation of the agreements and the referendum," he explained. Van Eck pointed out that the real challenge to the negotiators was to establish mutual trust between the parties in a country that had experienced genocide and a long-standing insurgency. COMPLICATIONS IN THE CONGO Meanwhile, in neighbouring DRC a coup attempt last year and heightened tension with Rwanda raised concern that the peace deal could unravel, plunging the Great Lakes region into conflict once more. Mbeki, who had been behind a peace agreement signed in Pretoria in 2002, which laid the foundation for ending the conflict in the DRC, again took the helm in trying to ease tensions. The year did not end on a hopeful note. There was renewed fighting in the North Kivu region of eastern DRC between troops of the national army arriving from the capital, Kinshasa, and members of the former rebel movement, the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Democratie (RCD), which has close ties with the Rwandan government. Elections scheduled to be held in June are likely to be postponed. "Foreign backers of former belligerents remain influential, posing a serious obstacle to the creation of a new, integrated Congolese national army. The reform of the security sector ... lies at the heart of the DRC's transformation process," Boschoff pointed out. An integrated army would ensure a secure environment for elections, and constitute the only "legitimate" deterrent to "process spoilers", he added. Realising the urgent need for security reform, South Africa, Belgium and Angola signed an agreement to help integrate six DRC brigades before the elections, to assist in stabilising the eastern DRC. "South African interventions have managed to reduce the actual violent conflicts in many of the countries, which should obviously be viewed as the first step only. More needs to be done - it has to deal with root causes of the conflict, which I don't believe have been dealt with in Burundi and DRC. In all cases the population has been completely left out; there has been no grassroots involvement," van Eck said. UNEASY CALM IN COTE D'IVOIRE Mbeki was also recruited by the AU to spearhead peace efforts in Cote d'Ivoire after an 18-month ceasefire fell apart in November 2004. He managed to strike a deal on 6 December to revive a faltering two-year-old peace accord, which prompted the UN Security Council to hold off from imposing individual sanctions on Cote d'Ivoire's key players. The peace process in Cote d'Ivoire, which has been split into a rebel-held north and a government-run south since September 2002, has not gained any momentum since the deal in December. South Africa had stepped in to break the impasse between President Laurent Gbagbo and the rebels on the contentious article 35 of the constitution, which bars main opposition leader Alassane Ouattara from contesting the presidency because his parents were not Ivorian, even though he had previously served as the country's prime minister. "Mbeki spoke to all the parties. The rebels agreed to return to parliament on the grounds that the article would be changed. However, Gbagbo announced he wants to hold a referendum on the constitution, so the impasse continues. Mbeki leaves for Cote d'Ivoire this week to talk to the concerned parties, to ensure that article 35 should not be taken to a referendum, but to the parliament to change it," Boschoff explained. DELICATE SITUATIONS FROM DARFUR TO ZIMBABWE Towards the middle of last year South Africa assumed chairmanship of the AU committee on post-conflict reconstruction of war-affected areas in Sudan, and Mbeki visited the country in that capacity last week. According to analysts, this could be the beginning of yet another South African mission to resolve the crisis still simmering in the Darfur region, despite the presence of AU military observers. Closer to home, South Africa has received much flak for it's handling of the political crisis in Zimbabwe, but continued with attempts to talk to all parties. Late last year Mbeki met with Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Zimbabwean opposition Movement for Democratic Change, who was acquitted of treason charges and a possible death penalty if convicted. "Mbeki's talks with Tsvangirai were the first ever to be publicised, which helped change the perception that South Africa implicitly supported the [Robert] Mugabe regime," according to political analyst Ross Herbert. THE MOUNTING COSTS OF INTERVENTION Although an African superpower, South Africa is still a developing country and is feeling the financial brunt of its interventions. The government recently justified the expense of a planned purchase of eight military transport aircraft at the cost of more than US $1 billion by disclosing that it had so far spent R100 million (US $16 million) on private contractors for its peacekeeping operations. Nevertheless, South Africa provides a capacity for Africa to act and has been the natural choice for the AU to lead such initiatives, said Boschoff. "South Africa comes in with a package - its team of negotiators and researchers - at its own cost. Its intervention in Burundi last year cost between $100,000 to $200,000." Until the AU is able to raise the resources and set up the structures, South Africa will continue to play a significant role in conflict resolution in Africa.