Yearender: Tajikistan at the crossroads - Continued

PEACE AND SECURITY Tajikistan's five-year civil war formally ended with the signing of the General Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord in June 1997, after which the country launched a continuous process of national reconciliation and dialogue to restore peace, stability and security. "The General Agreement of 1997 marked a new page in the history of Tajikistan and opened new prospects for the democratic development of the country," Vladimir Sotirov, the head of the UN's Tajikistan Office of Peace-building (UNTOP), tasked with the delicate responsibility of providing political framework and leadership for the post-conflict process, told IRIN. As part of the agreement, former members of the United Tajik Opposition were included in government structures, while the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, one of the major political actors in the conflict, was not only legally recognised but gained two seats in the national parliament in the elections of 2000. The ICG report said the country's experience in ending the civil war and integrating opposition factions into government had won deserved praise, noting improved security and stability country-wide over the past two years as a result. "Today, political pluralism in Tajikistan is slowly gaining pace," Sotirov said, noting there were already six registered political parties contributing towards the creation of peaceful dialogue and debate, and such internal mechanisms as would strengthen the irreversibility of the peace process. The Tajik people were now enjoying enhanced political stability and security, the Bulgarian diplomat said, despite the fact there were several factors - both internal and external - that could adversely affect the existing situation. Describing the next parliamentary elections, slated for early 2005, as a major political event and a test for the level of change in the people's attitude and political behaviour, Sotirov said: "We hope that such conditions will be established in order to have fair, transparent, non-violent and democratic elections." HUMAN RIGHTS But not everyone shares that optimism. According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), Tajikistan's new role in the global campaign against terrorism has attracted greater international concern to the hitherto isolated country, thereby creating opportunities for some important human rights reforms. Conversely, however, it had also strengthened President Emomali's Rahmonov's de facto one-party rule. While the government had taken some positive steps in response to international pressure, it had also kept the political opposition under tight control, turning curbs on freedom of expression into a major issue. Ahmed Rashid, a regional analyst and author of Jihad, The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia, told IRIN that despite hopes of a pluralistic society developing after the 1997 peace agreement, Rahmonov was moving swiftly to emulate other Central Asian leaders in becoming increasingly dictatorial and authoritarian, while the advantages of a multiparty system were being dissipated. "Press restrictions, the lack of economic reform and the failure to deal with the drugs epidemic, as well as patronage exercised by the ruling clans, are proving very detrimental," he said. Meanwhile, Lewis of the ICG, described the situation as stable in the short-term, warning, however, that there was a danger that in the search for stability, the system would stagnate and become more authoritarian. "In governance, there will be little improvement unless there is freer media, and some element of political pluralism, ensuring public criticism of the existing ruling elite is permitted," he said. DONOR COMMUNITY Given certain internal improvements, Tajikistan requires less humanitarian and more development assistance. That gradual progress towards stability and development is being made is undeniable, and over the past two years, the atmosphere, particularly in the urban areas, has become more positive. Economically, things have improved. There has been a growth rate of between 9 percent and 10 percent this year, with at least one-third of the growth coming from non-traditional sectors - mainly services and trade. There has also been growth in small-scale agriculture, experts say. Generally speaking, an important stage in the reform process towards achieving macroeconomic stability coupled with high growth and much lower inflation has been completed, but remains an area requiring more work if the positive trend is to be sustained. But despite these positive signs, Tajikistan remains heavily reliant on international assistance. Emin Sanginov, the director of the country's aid coordination unit, told IRIN that the country could not solve the problems affecting health, education, food security, and access to fresh drinking water unaided, necessitating a strong commitment from the donor community. That view was also reflected in this year's CAP. "Many acute humanitarian needs still remain, shadowed by a severe lack of local capacity in nutrition, food security, health, drinking water and disaster management," it said. It requested nearly $54 million for projects addressing such acute humanitarian needs, while at the same time building national capacities and fostering economic recovery at the central and regional levels.

Vladimir Sotirov, the head of the United Nations' Tajikistan Office of Peace-building (UNTOP)

Whereas donor response to Tajikistan has been strong, the government must now work to ensure that donor funds are well spent. In May 2003, the Consultative Group, a forum of all donors organised by the World Bank, pledged around $1 billion for Tajikistan over the next three years, one-quarter of which would be in the form of grants. A major concern brought forward by donors, however, was the need for greater alignment between the government's public investment programme (PIP) and the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), the framework for donor support. "At the moment there is a weak link between the PRSP and the PIP," Sarmad Khawaja, the resident representative for the IMF in Dushanbe, told IRIN. "If you want to reduce poverty, spend more on education and health. The PIP was emphasising large-scale programmes, which donors do not feel can reduce poverty effectively," he said, noting that the PIP was now being revised. Such cooperation will prove critical to what many aid workers are calling the next stage for Tajikistan, which is development. "Everybody agrees that the emphasis should be on development," the former head of Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in Dushanbe, Franke de Jonge, told IRIN, just days before MSF officially closed its doors there in December to make room for more NGOs ready to focus on just that aspect. "We are pulling out, OK, but that doesn't mean Tajikistan doesn't need international assistance," he stressed, noting the need for long-term development funding. Whereas there may be agreement on some levels, there is also debate. Lewis asserted that very little attention had been paid to the country's long-term strategy. Most aid had focused on the provision of humanitarian assistance, although this was starting to change, with the introduction of more activities geared to development. The most critical areas were education, civil society, the business environment and the transport infrastructure, he specified. "All aid has a political aspect in Tajikistan, and most international organisations are very poor at engaging at a political level," Lewis maintained, noting that there was only limited insight into real decision-making, and not enough response to problems created by corruption. "Past failures of international projects because of corruption tend to be brushed under the carpet. International organisations must take at least some responsibility for the growth of corruption in the country," he stressed. ROAD AHEAD But such responsibility is very much a two-way street. Today, Tajik leaders face the challenges of the difficult transitional period from a centralised system of management to one based on the principles of pluralistic democracy, the promotion and protection of human rights, and a market economy. The country must alleviate poverty, fight widespread corruption, strengthen the rule of law, combat narcotics trafficking and resist the efforts of those promoting radicalism and religious extremism. "All these challenges cannot be successfully addressed without substantive international support and cooperation," Sotirov of UNTOP maintained. Although there have been suggestions that the government is prepared to take on some of the efforts expected of it by donors, it is difficult to say what concrete reforms or policy changes it will make to enable it to respond positively. A request by IRIN to interview the president on this issue was declined, as was a request to his office for him to answer questions in writing. What is apparent, meanwhile, is that Tajikistan is at a crossroads for change, requiring a government open to change and a donor community willing to support it in effecting change. The question now is whether both parties are fully ready for the task at hand. [Ends]