Special report on the impact of a future peace agreement on Sudan's refugees and displaced - II

REFUGEE MOVEMENT The vast majority of Sudan's refugees are currently living in Uganda (over 223,000), Ethiopia (over 88,000), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (almost 70,000), Chad (about 70,000) and Kenya (almost 60,000). There are also sizeable populations in the Central African Republic and Egypt. Once a peace deal is signed, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, Sudanese authorities and the governments hosting the refugees will form tripartite commissions to map out transport arrangements for returnees. Trips will be organised for refugee leaders who will go back to Sudan as a "confidence-building measure" and then report to their communities on the conditions there, Anoushiravan Daneshvar, head of technical support for UNHCR in the East, Horn and Great Lakes regions of Africa told IRIN. The largest numbers come from around Yei, Torit, and Kajo Keji in Equatoria, North Bor in Upper Nile, and southern Blue Nile. Those who wish to return will then be bussed across the border to central locations and given a standard "reintegration package" of cooking utensils, blankets, mosquito nets and other items. Meanwhile, UNHCR will undertake "quick impact" projects with NGOs at home to fix schools, clinics, and water points in home villages, while other agencies will begin reconstruction and development projects. The process will be voluntary, but the official camps hosting over 360,000 of the refugees will close within a few years, effectively forcing the refugees to return home, or apply to host governments for permission to remain - which may or may not be granted. The first convoys will probably begin to move after the rainy season in November 2004 - if a peace agreement has been signed - but will be spread out to allow development projects to take root in home communities, said Daneshvar. "Because of the difficulties in the south, with food security, the lack of services and the time it takes to change that, the repatriation should be staggered," he emphasised. INTERNALLY DISPLACED The movement of Sudan's displaced, which will be spontaneous, is far harder to control. The possibility of establishing "way-stations" along key roads and the Nile is being discussed to provide food and medical care for them, and as the only means of registering who is moving where, Houston told IRIN. But the current thinking is that agencies and NGOs should improve conditions in the IDPs' home areas - such as schools and health care - for everyone in the community, instead of singling them out for special treatment or assistance. This also extends to not providing large-scale transport, which might facilitate the mass movement of people against their will. Sudan's displaced reportedly number up to 2 million in Khartoum, 700,000 in Darfur, with smaller numbers scattered around the south, the Nuba mountains, southern Blue Nile, and greater Kordofan, all adding up to between 3 million and 4 million. But UN officials concede that official figures are often inaccurate, as there is no method of registration or monitoring. Figures provided by SPLM officials are often exaggerated, because over the last 10 years "the only way to get help was to yell IDP", Houston told IRIN. "We created that problem. We funded emergencies and the only way to get help in the south if you're a local administrator is by crying IDP," he said. Whether people will move quickly, or bide their time as they send family members to investigate conditions at home, is the other great uncertainty. A CARE/International Organisation for Migration survey conducted in Khartoum indicated that about two-thirds of the IDPs there wanted to go home as soon as a peace agreement was signed. The director of the SPLM's humanitarian wing, Elijah Malok, told IRIN, "People are ready to go, they will go home. Once the guns are silent, they will go home. We just need the resources to resettle them." But others say the Sudanese will need serious incentives to make them move. "The different reasons why they left will determine whether they go back," Stephen McDowell, information coordinator for the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, told IRIN. For those with jobs and schools for their children in urban areas, returning to a rural area with no infrastructure is highly unlikely, he added. PROBLEMS AHEAD The general uncertainty means that a series of potential problems lie ahead, according to Houston. There may be sudden mass movements of people to areas unable to cope with them; the major towns in the south may fill up beyond their capacity; people may return en masse and then move away again, causing chaos; and conflict over land and cattle may escalate hugely with no land registration system in place and a weak southern government. Rates of HIV infection, currently estimated by UNAIDS at 2.6 percent country-wide, are expected to increase dramatically with the return of the refugees from neighbouring countries with much higher rates. Conflict with host communities which will see the refugees being assisted by the international community while they are not, coupled with increased competition for water, land, firewood, and food in certain areas, as well as the economic shocks of mass influxes of people into areas, are further potential sore points. Policy makers who are presuming that IDPs will be happy to return to their rural homes may also be disappointed. "It is a challenge for the UN. The planning is rural-oriented - it might take everyone by surprise," Daneshvar told IRIN. Many of the displaced have had to move so many times that it is extremely difficult to ascertain where they may return to. "In 1991 I went to Bor, but there was fighting against the Nuer. I ran to Torit and then to Kaya, moving in a big crowd. From there I went to Maridi to stay with a sister. Then Yambio, back to Kaya, then Nimule. I was always moving, because there were bombs or rumours that the Arabs were coming. Then I went to Lokichokio [northern Kenya] and Kakuma [refugee camp in northern Kenya]," said one woman. Some may even travel northwards, not south, to cities in search of jobs and education. Already there are an estimated 22,000 people from the Nuba mountains in Port Sudan for economic reasons. Continued