Feature - Deepening poverty threatens households

A household-level recovery from the past year's food security crisis in Malawi is being complicated by deepening levels of poverty, observers say. In a recent interview with IRIN in the capital Lilongwe, World Food Programme (WFP) country representative, Gerard van Dijk, said "poverty, combined with HIV/AIDS" had worsened household vulnerability. "You have to see the situation of crop failures against the background of structural problems. Economic growth is sometimes negative, around 0 percent and 1 percent. This means poverty is only increasing," Van Dijk added. This was evident by the "striking lack of an informal sector ... People can't afford these items. You go to villages and inside the homes there's nothing. It is an example of a population living on the most minimal basics", he said. "The number of people living below the poverty line is still increasing - some people say it might go up to more than 70 percent in the coming years," Van Dijk commented. In a recent report on the economic situation in the country, Rafiq Hajat of the Blantyre-based Institute for Policy Interaction (IPI) noted that with a "nominal per capita income of US $160, Malawi is on of the poorest countries in the world, with dire poverty that is pervasive and deeply rooted". The report points out that "30 percent of the population earn incomes that are inadequate to assure basic calorie needs" and life expectancy is at an average of 44 years. "This daunting scenario is further compounded by one of the highest prevalences of HIV/AIDS; in urban areas, the prevalence rate among women visiting prenatal clinics is estimated at over 30 percent. Water and sanitation and rural infrastructure are severely inadequate: over two-thirds of households use pit latrines, and potable water is available to only half the population," the report said. Malawi is a landlocked country that lacks mineral resources, and is among the most densely populated in sub-Saharan Africa. With a mainly agrarian economy - which employs 85 percent of the labour force and accounts for 40 percent of GDP - three droughts in four years have had a terrible effect on household coping mechanisms. Malawi has, however, staged a remarkable recovery from the widespread food shortages of the 2002/03 agricultural season. At the height of the crisis about 3 million Malawians needed food aid to survive. Humanitarian agencies now estimate the need for relief aid will peak at about 400,000 people in January 2004. Nevertheless, "making the recovery sustainable will be very difficult", said Van Dijk. WFP was focusing more on food-for-work initiatives to help build community infrastructure, but would continue to provide direct assistance to the most vulnerable sectors of the population, including the 800,000 children aged under 18 who have lost one or both parents to HIV/AIDS. "Our thinking has evolved over the last 12 months - we are thinking of how we can be of help in addressing the problems of the country. Sixty-five percent of people live below the poverty line, so it is extremely difficult to identify the most vulnerable. Targeting amongst the extreme poor is not easy," Van Dijk noted. "Basically, the most vulnerable are hidden in the population. Crop failures can be localised, flooding gives you a clearly defined area [where aid is needed] but targeting [the vulnerable] in poverty is very difficult, it is not easy," he added. Given the widespread poverty and consequent vulnerability to shocks, another serious crop failure could spell disaster for ordinary Malawians. "There's a high risk of large numbers of people dying, either directly from hunger, or indirectly through cholera, HIV/AIDS etc. So, absolutely, the country is still fragile," Van Dijk concluded. Like Van Dijk, the IPI believes addressing poverty would go a long way towards lessening people's vulnerability to shocks. However, the IPI report warned that "prospects for any material dent in the depth and breadth of poverty are limited as long as [the] population continues to grow at the high rate of 2.7 percent a year, whilst economic growth declines year upon year". Up to 80 percent of Malawi's development budget is funded by donors. The International Monetary Fund is withholding US $47 million in budget support assistance in response to government overspending, and Western governments have also demanded greater transparency.