Dissolution of cabinet could weaken ruling UDF

The dissolution of Malawi's cabinet this week could weaken unity within the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) ahead of elections next year, analysts told IRIN. Just two days after President Bakili Muluzi announced he was giving up his bid to seek a third term in office, he sacked his entire cabinet and named Bingu wa Mutharika - a political newcomer - as his successor. Observers alleged Muluzi's decision could serve to outmanoeuvre senior members in the UDF politburo who were opposed to the succession process. In a brief statement from the Office of the President on Wednesday, Muluzi failed to give any reason for the surprise move. "Some members in the UDF top structures have been very critical of the succession process even before it was announced that Mr wa Mutharika would stand as the party candidate in the next elections. Some people believe Muluzi has imposed his will on the party and have threatened to quit the party altogether," director of the Centre for Human Rights and Rehabilitation, Ollen Mwalubunju, told IRIN. Local newspaper The Chronicle last week reported that senior UDF ministers, including Harry Thomson, Aleke Banda, Justin Malewezi and Sam Mpasu, had written to Muluzi outlining their rejection of his chosen successor. Mwalubunju alleged that by firing all his ministers, Muluzi had created the opportunity to reconstitute a cabinet more to his liking. "By getting rid of the entire cabinet, Muluzi hopes to circumvent accusations that he has targeted individuals who are opposed to the succession process. It is also a way of keeping the political aspirations of other senior cabinet ministers in check. A new cabinet is likely to exclude dissidents," Mwalubunju said. Muluzi's alleged ambition to stay in power beyond two terms was thwarted after a bill proposing the constitutional amendment failed to garner the required two-thirds majority when it was first introduced in July 2002. Another bid to push through the amendment failed again in January this year amid widespread protest from churches, NGOs and the donor community. Analysts have suggested that 69-year-old wa Mutharika, Muluzi's surprise choice as the UDF's candidate for the 2004 elections, is the president's final attempt to influence the future of Malawian politics. "The game has not been played out as yet. While Mr wa Mutharika has been endorsed by the party, his nomination still needs to be ratified by the delegates at the party convention in May," director of the Institute for Policy Interaction, Rafiq Hajat, said. He commented that by dissolving the cabinet, Muluzi was probably giving wa Mutharika the opportunity to choose a team he would be comfortable with in the run up to the elections. Some observers fear that by firing the UDF top brass and insisting on wa Mutharika's candidacy, Muluzi may have inadvertently triggered the first major split in the party that won power and established democracy in 1994. "Any kind of split in the UDF would be significant for the future of democracy in Malawi. Senior UDF members who are dissatisfied with Muluzi may decide to leave the party and form a new opposition. On the other hand, some may leave and join existing opposition groups," chairman of the NGO, the Civil Liberties Committee, Ralph Kasambara, told IRIN. "This will in the long term encourage healthy debate and produce a vibrant opposition. Presently, the UDF has a stranglehold on politics in Malawi and by watering down some of that power, we will eventually escape the quagmire of a state dominated by just one party," he added.