Focus on government proposal for talks with LRA

Recent indications of readiness by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's government and the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) to enter into direct peace talks have raised hopes for ending the devastating conflict in the northern part of the country. Sceptics, however, fear that neither the Ugandan government nor LRA leaders are genuinely interested in a negotiated peace deal which could end the 16-year insurgency in the Acholi sub-region. While both parties have shown willingness to declare a ceasefire and enter into direct talks, the framework within which such talks should take place is yet to be agreed upon. DOUBT OVER COMMITMENT TO PEACE Moses Draku, the public information officer for Uganda's Amnesty Commission, told IRIN that although both the Ugandan government and LRA leaders appear to have softened their stance, the extent to which both are committed to a negotiated peace deal remains in doubt. "We encourage all sides in the conflict to go for dialogue so as to bring peace to the country. The extent to which they will move in that direction remains to be seen," he said. The commission supervises a general amnesty initiated by Museveni in 2000 for all rebel combatants who lay down their arms. Analysts, however, argue that relatively few rebels have taken up the offer. "We encourage the rebels to come out and take advantage of the amnesty, but the response can only be assessed when they do come out," Draku added. CEASEFIRE OFFERS Last month, Museveni bowed to pressure by some LRA commanders and religious leaders in the Acholi sub-region who are opposed to a military solution to the conflict. According to local media reports, he wrote to the LRA leader, Joseph Kony, laying down his government's terms for peace talks. Museveni's terms for a ceasefire included a commitment by the LRA to stop kidnapping and killing civilians. He also demanded that the entire LRA force confine itself to only three sites in southern Sudan where the group has its bases. On 23 August, Museveni - who has long been opposed to talks with the LRA - reiterated the earlier offer to declare a one-week ceasefire for talks, provided that the conditions he spelled out for the LRA were met. The LRA, however, rejected these terms, and then declared a "unilateral" ceasefire beginning at midnight on 24 August, on condition that the army stopped attacking LRA positions. "We are going to observe this ceasefire until further notice, but on condition that the UPDF [Uganda People's Defence Forces] will not attack our positions," an LRA political commissar told the BBC by satellite telephone. The UPDF, which has since March this year been waging a military campaign against the LRA in southern Sudan with the permission of the Sudan government, promptly rejected Kony's ceasefire terms, saying the LRA had not fulfilled the government's conditions. "It is business as usual," army spokesman Major Shaban Bantariza told the government-owned 'New Vision' newspaper. "We are continuing to fight and hunt them. The army expects the rebels to follow the conditions President Museveni gave them and assemble in the places we mentioned before a ceasefire can be declared." "Who can trust these rebels who keep roaming the woodlands in the north as they kill, abduct and burn vehicles?" he added. MILITARY AGENDA According to Sam Tindifa who heads the Human Rights and Peace Centre at Uganda's state Makerere University, the inability of the government and LRA to agree on conditions for talks, is an indication that both sides are determined to continue pursuing a military agenda until they reach "mutual destruction". "I don't know whether either party can be taken seriously. Each party is offering conditions that are unacceptable to the other," he told IRIN. Tindifa argues that lasting peace for northern Uganda lies in a political, rather than military, solution. The northern rebellion, he said, was rooted in the "military history" of Museveni's government which, upon seizing power in 1986, put in place political structures which have "tended to muzzle opposition". One such structure is the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) system, which restricts the activities of political parties, he said. "I think the problem in the first place is political rather than military. Without solving the political problems, there can be no military solution," Tindifa said. "The north is fundamentally opposed to the Movement. It is therefore easy for an armed rebellion to take root in such an environment." DISTANT PEACE The LRA, which has its roots in extremist Christian and local traditional religions, is seeking to create a state based on the Biblical Ten Commandments. The insurgents have, since they began their activities in 1987, regularly abducted children, tortured and mutilated civilian victims, pillaged local villages, and laid landmines along roads and footpaths. According to estimates by the UN Children's Fund and other agencies, the LRA has abducted up to 20,000 people since the late 1980s, including at least 10,000 children. Attacks by the LRA in the north subsided in 1999, but have dramatically increased since June this year. The renewed LRA activity has been characterised by serious attacks on displaced people's camps, killings, road ambushes, abductions, and looting - despite regular troop reinforcements. The attacks, which have been some of the LRA's most daring, have raised doubts over the army's ability to crush the rebellion within weeks, as had earlier been anticipated. The unilateral ceasefire which the rebel group declared at the weekend initially raised hopes for much-needed peace in the region, where at least 490,000 people have been uprooted from their homes by the insurgency. However, reports of a weekend attack in which the LRA killed two people in the northern town of Gulu, have dampened such hopes. Walter Ochora Odoch, the chairman of Gulu town council, told IRIN that the reported weekend attack had placed the LRA ceasefire in doubt. "We are still trying to see if it is genuine. People here are very excited. All along they said the president was wrong not to allow talks. But now the ball is in Kony's court. You can't blame the president any more," he said. "He [Kony] has put himself in a trap. We expected him to release the newly abducted people and stop attacks. But none of those conditions have been met," Odoch added. Furthermore, recent claims in the local media linking Kiiza Besigye - Museveni's main rival in the 2001 presidential elections who now lives in exile - to the LRA have serious implications in the northern Ugandan conflict, according to Tindifa. He argues that the possibility of Besigye's involvement with the LRA could lead to the transformation of the northern insurgency into a much more complex conflict. "If it is true that Besigye is in the picture, then there will be a new dimension to the conflict," he said. However, it would be in the best interests of the Ugandan government to ensure that the war ended, Tindifa added. "There is too much suffering in northern Uganda. The government is under pressure to end the war," he said. Museveni, however, appears to have backtracked on talks, and has promised to crush the rebellion by February 2003, according to local media reports. He said the military operation was on course, and that the "Kony rebels" would no longer have a permanent base outside Uganda, the 'New Vision' reported at the weekend.