Focus on secession fears

The Organisation of African Unity (OAU) has called for a referendum to chose between Madagascar's political rivals, despite a court verdict that opposition challenger Marc Ravolamanana won a disputed December presidential election, news reports said on Tuesday. OAU Secretary-General Amara Essy said in a statement that a referendum under the terms of an agreement brokered in Senegal earlier this month was the only way to end the Indian Ocean island's political crisis, and avoid the country's partition. However, Ravalomanana has insisted that he would be sworn in on Friday. That has heightened fears that governors loyal to president Didier Ratsiraka in four out of Madagascar's six provinces could declare secession from the capital, Antananarivo. Madagascar's nine member High Constitutional Court (HCC) ruled on Monday that Ravalomanana had won 51 percent of the vote in the disputed 16 December poll to Ratsiraka's 36 percent after a recount agreed in Dakar. But Ratsiraka said before the verdict was announced that he would not accept the results of the recount, alleging that the reconstituted court had been illegally appointed. One political watcher told IRIN that the OAU suggestion of a referendum not only undermined the country's judicial system, but flew in the face of the Dakar accord brokered by the OAU. News reports said on Tuesday that the jubilation in Antananarivo after the HCC's decision had given way to despair over the international community's apparent unwillingness to recognise Ravalomanana. "Referenda are about either a yes or a no. Referenda are not designed to decide between individual candidates," political scientist Remi Ralibera told IRIN. But provincial governors supporting Ratsiraka have rejected the HCC ruling. Governors in the southwestern province of Toliara and the northern province of Antsiranana warned on Friday they would secede from the rest of the country if the recount went in Ravalomanana's favour. A blockade designed to strangle the opposition-held capital Antananarivo has not been lifted. TWO PRESIDENTS IN ONE COUNTRY The rivalry between Ratsiraka - one of Africa's longest serving rulers - and Ravalomanana, a dairy tycoon, has hopelessly split the island of 15 million people and tarnished its image as a peaceful and investor-friendly country. In just over four months of stalemate, political violence has reportedly claimed at least 35 lives, as both men claim to be the country's rightful ruler. Official results in January from the first round of December's presidential poll gave Ratsiraka 40.8 percent of the vote and Ravalomanana 46.2 percent - just short of the 50 percent needed for outright victory. The HCC, whose membership had been altered by Ratsiraka, ordered that a second round run-off be held. But Ravalomanana, a newcomer to the Malagasy political scene, said he was the unequivocal winner and alleged the result had been rigged. Mass protests erupted on the streets of Antananarivo. Ratsiraka refused to give way to the demonstrations that reportedly pulled in crowds of over 300,000 people. Ravalomanana responded by declaring himself president on 22 February. Ratsiraka imposed martial law on Antananarivo but the army announced its neutrality in the conflict. Ravalomanana then installed his own cabinet, with his ministers evicting the incumbents from their offices. With Ravalomanana supporters in charge of Antananarivo, Ratsiraka's administration took flight to the east coast town of Tamatave, the country's main port. The pro-Ratsiraka governor of Tamatave threw up roadblocks on the main route to the capital, starving Antananarivo of fuel and vital supplies. Governors loyal to Ratsiraka have become increasingly belligerent in the face of rising tension on the island. Last week, while Ratsiraka was in Paris, they issued a communiqué refusing to lift the roadblocks until Ravalomanana dissolved his government. As the crisis drags on, there has been increasing speculation that the roadblocks, once an effective political weapon, have become a source of revenue for opportunists in both camps. SEPARATIST FEARS Fears were raised when the crisis started that the conflict would be cast along ethnic lines. But apart from isolated incidents of inter-communal skirmishes in the north of the country, the conflict has remained largely between pro-Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana supporters. Both have significant backing from across the 18 ethnic groups occupying the island. Malagasy people are the descendants of successive waves of immigrants from such diverse areas as south-east Asia, continental Africa and Arab countries. Although any idea of partition has been denounced since independence in 1960, a measure of decentralisation was established in the early 1990s by Ratsiraka. But analysts argue that any serious attempt at secession would spell economic suicide. "Except for Antananarivo and Tamatave, which contains the main port of the island, no province can live without financial support from the central treasury. As it is, the country's economy has been battered by the crisis," Pepe Andrianomanana, an economist at the University of Madagascar, told IRIN. According to Remi Ralibera, a Jesuit priest who edits the Catholic newspaper La Kroan'i Madagasikara, peace cannot be achieved "by sitting around a table signing a document that doesn't take the concerns of the Malagasy people into consideration". He added: "Both men must put the country first. At the moment it is about winning and losing, which is not helping the situation. Ravalomanana must also realise that his concern should be broader than that of his business, if he is to be taken seriously as the country's future leader." Ralibera's criticism of Ravalomanana is part of a growing sense of discontent among some Malagasy students and academics in the capital. Although largely pro-Ravalomanana, some have recently questioned the young millionaires methods in response to the deepening crisis. "Yes, everyone agrees that change is good and necessary. However, Ravalomanana must also realise that if he ignores the law today somebody will do the same tomorrow. Where will we find ourselves then," said Fy Ratsifasoamanan, a political science graduate at the University of Madagascar. The independent press has also condemned Ravalomanana's refusal to dissolve his government and give up his self-declared presidency after the Dakar accord, accusing him of "fuelling an already tense situation". "The accord is hardly worth the paper it has been written on," remarked one editorial, after both camps refused to budge on any of the concessions laid out by the agreement.