Focus on growing political instability

Back in his office, Parliamentary Deputy Azimbek Beknazarov has every reason to savour an unusual political victory. Arrested in January after he publicly called for the impeachment of President Askar Akayev, Beknazarov won his release last week, following an unprecedented mobilisation of his supporters which left seven dead and forced the government into retreat. But despite his elation, there is also bitterness in Beknazarov's voice: seven people paid for his freedom with their lives and scores more were injured by government forces as they made their way to Beknazarov's court case on 17 March in the village of Kerben, in the southern province of Jalal-Abad. Two days later, Beknazarov was released under a written commitment not to leave the country. "The government is entirely responsible for the bloodshed, and there will be no peace until the ones responsible for the shooting are publicly named and punished according to the existing laws," Beknazarov told IRIN in an interview. Displaying graying hair and speaking with a slight Kyrgyz accent which betrays his southern provenance, Beknazarov has the self-confidence of a man speaking on behalf of his people. These people are now trying to come to terms with levels of violence and bloodshed unprecedented since Kyrgyzstan won its independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991. "On this occasion, the old methods of the government in crushing dissent just by mounting pressure did not work; 17 March is now known as Bloody Sunday," said Kuban Mambetaliev, political analyst and head of the Association of Journalists of Kyrgyzstan. And while the term "Bloody Sunday" owes more to rhetoric than political reality, there is a growing sense among political analysts and commentators that the events surrounding Beknazarov's detention have unveiled deep wounds in the country. Political inertia, regional antagonism between north and south and growing levels of extreme poverty could, they say, mark the start of nationwide social unrest in Kyrgyzstan. "The people have lost patience and the government has ignored all the warnings," says Adakhan Madumarov, a leading deputy, also from the south, who took an active part in the campaign for the release of his colleague, Beknazarov. Traditionally hailed as a functioning democratic state in comparison to the authoritarian regimes of neighbouring Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan experienced a deep political shock when police opened fire on Beknazarov's supporters. Beknazarov was arrested in January after he publicly called for the impeachment of Akayev, following the 1999 signing of a secret agreement conceding Kyrgyz territory to China to settle border disputes. Officially, Beknazarov was detained on charges of abuse of power while he worked as an investigator in the regional prosecutor's office in 1995. In a television address to the nation on March 18, Akayev accused the opposition of "political extremism and attempting to destabilise the country". In the days following the 17 March events, state-controlled media consistently denied that the killings had taken place, and accused the protesters of" hooliganism" and of provoking the police forces. The media called for national unity against what it termed "political terrorism". A former communist turned democrat, Akayev became independent Kyrgyzstan's first elected president in 1991, and was a vocal supporter of democratic reforms in the early 1990s. But his re-election in October 2000 stirred protest from the international community, as free media and opposition candidates had come under harassment during the election. Observers believe that Akayev's public criticism of the opposition was motivated by his collapsing political credibility: "Akayev's only concern is to control the situation at all cost, because he is afraid of impeachment," explains political analyst Mambetaliev. Beknazarov's call for Akayev's impeachment came after the land deal with China, which ceded Kyrgyz territory to Beijing. According to deputy Madumarov, "the unrest is caused by the people's exasperation when they see their country is being sold away to neighbouring countries". "I am from Lake Ysyk-kol in the north. People in the south are different - hot-blooded and take easily to the street," said Bolot, a taxi driver. "But if Kyrgyz territory is at stake, I will join them and march in Bishkek tomorrow." President Akayev's current mandate runs out in 2004, but rumours of anticipated presidential elections have increased political tension. While Beknazarov himself is not officially running for president, he could unite the opposition from the south as a symbol of resistance against a government which has become increasingly at odds with itself. The government fears the people's frustration, but it is even more concerned that low-paid civil servants could openly voice criticism and join the opposition movement. Several local officials were kidnapped and molested in the Jalal-Abad region before 17 March in relation to Beknazarov's trial in court. "What we see here is political inertia: no one wants to take the risk of being unpopular, therefore no one wants to assume responsibility," said Giorgio Fiacconi, an Italian investor and founder of a regional English-language newspaper, The Times of Central Asia. "Even when 10,000 people sign a petition asking for the release of Beknazarov and address it to the authorities, the government does not even react. How can people use legal ways to express their concern when officials openly lie to the people?" said Beknazarov. Often cited as a major factor of instability is the division between north and south. Kyrgyzstan is a society based on clans who divide power and act together against other clans to safeguard their interests. While Akayev is from a northern clan, Beknazarov represents the southern clans. Whereas the north is Russian-speaking, urbanised and enjoys a disproportionate concentration of political and financial power, the south is heavily populated, ethnically diverse, largely rural and much more religious. It is also more affected by poverty and unemployment. Since the 17 March events took place in the Jalal-Abad region, there is concern that the south is seeking revenge against Bishkek, the northern capital that often ignores the rest of the country and keeps most of the foreign aid. "Southern clans want to control the economy and they need their man in Bishkek," says Mambetaliev. The north-south divide is not just political, but also economic: the southern region of Kyrgyzstan is part of the fertile Ferghana valley, the country's main source of water, arable lands, and fruit and vegetable production. It is also home to the 800,000-strong Uzbek minority, which has control over most of the business activities in the region. Since ethnic conflicts in 1990 between ethnic Uzbeks and ethnic Kyrgyz, Uzbeks are perceived as a potential threat to territorial unity, and are unrepresented at the highest political level, despite the fact they have become the second-largest ethnic group among the 4 million population of Kyrgyzstan. But, say analysts, the root cause of the political tremors that are being felt across the country owe more to declining economic performance and an attendant rise in levels of poverty than regional tensions. In the years following 1991, Kyrgyz society lost all the social benefits from the Soviet system and has struggled to make the transition to a market economy. For a majority, and particularly in the south, monthly incomes do not exceed US $15. In remote regions, money has simply disappeared. Barter and home-grown production are the only means of survival. "The danger is that Kyrgyzstan is totally reliant on international aid, and there is no incentive to actually develop the economy," said investor Fiacconi. "The only ideology for Kyrgyzstan should be employment." Economic studies by international organisations indicate the national GDP equals foreign debt, and an estimated 40 percent rate of unemployment. Such figures explain the social depression and frustration experienced by a majority of the population. This is in turn perpetuated by a general feeling among the population that a small elite linked to Bishkek circles is living extremely well while the rest are fighting for daily survival. In this context, Beknazarov's release after a massive show of public support could be a positive development. "This is a clear sign the government can no longer imprison a citizen for his opinion," says Madumarov. And Beknazarov himself warned that the government is losing its last chance for a peaceful settlement with the people: "Ten days have gone since the shooting, and not a single official has been charged for shooting at its own people. Akayev must go down to the south, meet the relatives of the victims and establish fair justice. None of that has happened so far."