IRIN Focus on opposition challenge

Opposition legislators were on Thursday scheduled to reach agreement on a common strategy that could either make or break President Levy Mwanawasa's shaky administration, analysts told IRIN. The opposition, which has rejected the results of general elections held on 27 December that saw the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) bouncing back into power, are determined to weaken the position of what they perceive as an illegitimate government. Three opposition parties - Anderson Mazoka's United Party for National Development (UPND), Christon Tembo's Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD), and Godfrey Miyanda's Heritage Party - have separately petitioned the results of the polls on the grounds that they were rigged. However, both independent analysts and opposition leaders themselves doubt that the legal challenge will succeed. Instead, they are depending on the opposition's majority in the parliament - which starts sitting on Friday - to disable the Mwanawasa administration. Opposition parties collectively hold 81 of the 158 seats in the House. FFD chairman for finance, Dipak Patel, told IRIN that opposition parties were contemplating a plan to scrap "oppressive" laws - such as the draconian public order act - and to push through progressive legislative reforms. Presidential powers could also be trimmed. Alternatively, they could disable the government by throwing out both the national budget - which is scheduled for presentation in parliament next month - and whatever legislation the government tries to push through. "Our position will depend on how President Mwanawasa outlines his government's policies in his official speech to the House on Friday. If the reality does not coincide with his vision, we will not support him," Patel told IRIN. "Unfortunately, his performance so far has been wanting. For example, he is not talking about constitutional reforms, which is on top of our agenda. He has also failed to penalise corrupt government officials, and has even retained some of them," he added. The opposition's veto power over the budget hands them a powerful weapon. It would not only cripple government operations, if the budget is blocked three times in succession, Mwanawasa would be obliged to dissolve the House. However, the ruling MMD could induce some opposition MPs into crossing the floor and ending the opposition's numerical dominance. Several opposition parliamentarians have said they have reportedly been offered large sums of money to support the MMD. "In these days of economic stress, it is possible that some members will be tempted into accepting the money. We can only urge them to take the money and still vote wisely, in the interests of democracy," Patel said. Civic leaders see a common opposition approach in fighting the MMD government - which got under 30 percent of the vote in last month's elections - as crucial to the development of the country's fragile democracy. The Oasis Forum, a group of non-governmental organisations formed last year to oppose former president Frederick Chiluba's unconstitutional bid for a third term, said it was crucial that the Speaker of the National Assembly came from the ranks of the opposition. The Speaker has the power to uphold or dismiss motions in the House. "It is essential for them [opposition parties] to have a united front and a bloc vote. We have strongly put it to the presidents that if any of their members of parliament fakes sickness on Friday, they must be dragged to go and cast their votes," Evangelical Fellowship of Zambia executive director Paul Mususa, who heads of the Oasis Forum, told journalists. However, there are already indications that not all opposition parties will necessarily back an opposition candidate for Speaker. The United National Independence Party (UNIP), which holds 13 parliamentary seats, has said its choice of a Speaker would be based less on the political affiliation of the aspiring candidate, as on their personal character. "We are looking for a disciplined person who has served the nation sincerely, honestly and faithfully. We need someone who can win the support of all Zambians, MMD supporters inclusive," UNIP secretary-general Basil Kabwe said. Whoever emerges as Speaker of the House, however, it is unlikely to be the incumbent, Amussa Mwanamwambwa of the MMD. Last year he foiled a campaign by rebel parliamentarians to impeach Chiluba, who had lost the support of his own members for trying to run for a third term. Mwanamwambwa defied a constitutional requirement to block the tabling of a motion to impeach Chiluba for impropriety.