IRIN Focus on regional food supplies

Recent heavy rains over large parts of South Africa are unlikely to affect maize exports to the rest of the region, an economist with Grain-SA told IRIN on Wednesday. "The heavy rains that we have been experiencing in recent weeks is likely to affect the new crop and not the old crop. Our [South Africa's] maize exports would come from the old crop," the economist said. Recent media reports said heavy rains in parts of South Africa's Free State province were likely to affect maize exports to the rest of the region. In its August food security bulletin, the Southern African Development Community's (SADC) Regional Early Warning Unit said 95 percent of the maize shortfall in most of the region would be met by imports from South Africa. "We have to remember that export and import of a product like maize is done on a commercial basis," the economist said. "With this in mind, factors such as the country's ability to pay the price asked for and its logistical abilities in terms of transporting the commodity all effect the export." In a report on South Africa released on the 6 December, the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service said: "Exports to the food deficit countries to the north, such as Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe are running into financial and infrastructural problems and are not going well. "Exports from the new season's crop will be severely limited if present conditions continue and crop prospects will have to increase substantially before a meaningful exportable surplus will develop. Imports will be needed to bolster supplies," the report added. Meanwhile, in its last quarterly bulletin for 2001, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisations' (FAO) Global and Early Warning System (GIEWS) said food supply in southern Africa was "tightening" and that localised shortages were being reported even in those countries where the overall cereal production had increased. In Zimbabwe, it said the "already tight" food supply situation had deteriorated as a result of reduced cereal production and a "general economic decline". It said that a vulnerability assessment indicated that 705,000 people in rural areas were at risk of food shortages, with an additional 250,000 people in urban areas experiencing food difficulties because of "sharp increases" in food prices. "Some 30,000 farm workers have lost their jobs and are left without means of subsistence," noted the bulletin. It added that although the government had made arrangements to import 150,000 mt of maize, the stocks had not yet reached the country. According to GIEWS, the price of maize in Malawi had increased by about 400 percent compared to a year ago. "The sharp increases in prices has severely reduced access to food for large sections of the populations. The government has made arrangements to import 150,000 mt of maize but only 10,000 mt had been delivered by the end of October," said the bulletin. In Zambia, the production of maize has been adversely affected by excessive rains and floods, as well as dry weather in the southern parts of the country. "Food difficulties are being experienced by rural communities which gathered a poor crop and by vulnerable urban households whose access to food has been significantly curtailed by high prices," added the bulletin. According to GIEWS the UN's World Food Programme (WFP) plans to distribute about 42,000 mt of food to about 1.3 million people in targeted districts from December until the next harvest. In Mozambique, despite a satisfactory 2001 cereal harvest, serious food "difficulties" have been reported in the southern provinces. According to the bulletin, a recent vulnerability assessment in these provinces by the government and WFP indicated that about 100,000 people were in need of emergency food assistance until the next harvest. "The food situation is also difficult for low-income sections of the population as a result of sharp increases in maize prices. Increases have been particularly high in northern areas, partially reflecting substantial cross-border exports to Malawi. Shortages of maize for the milling industry have also been reported in Maputo, where maize prices have reached record levels," said the bulletin. On the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar, a "bumper" 2001 cereal crop had improved the overall food supply situation. "In the chronically food deficit southern areas, production of maize and tubers was also good and structural food aid requirements are estimated as minimum levels," noted the bulletin. It added that the low price of paddy rice had negatively affected incomes of commercial farmers and there was "serious concern" about planting prospects for the new season which had just started. The bulletin added that cereal output had also "sharply reduced" in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, with food difficulties being experienced by vulnerable groups with low purchasing power. In Angola, the food situation of large numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs) remained very serious.