IRIN Focus on maize shortages

The snaking queues in Kamwala township's business district bring to mind Zambia's socialist era of the 1980s, when everything from cooking oil to bathing soap was scarce and shoppers arose before dawn to be first in line when the supermarket opened. Economic liberalisation changed all that, and the supermarkets in the Zambian capital now creak under the weight of a dazzling array of mostly imported goods. Yet the queues are back as consumers struggle to buy cheaper imported maize meal, as shortages in local production have pushed up the price of the locally grown staple. The country faces a 300,000 mt grain shortfall. The anticipated shortage has seen the price of maize meal almost double to 29,000 Kwacha (about US $7.5) per 25 kg bag in recent weeks. In a country where an estimated 80 percent of the people live on less than one dollar a day, that represents a significant proportion of the household budget. Fortunately for the urban consumer, maize imports from neighbouring Zimbabwe and South Africa are beginning to push the price down again. According to figures from the Agricultural Commodities Exchange [ACE], imported maize is currently fetching around $240 per mt, compared to $305 for the local crop. The price difference is significant for consumers in low-income groups, whose impoverishment mean they are obliged to jostle for hours in the sweltering sun for their turn at the counter. "I was in the queue since 06:00 hours this morning, but I failed to get a bag," a distraught Lusaka housewife told IRIN after supplies ran out before her turn to buy. "There were just too many people". The ACE predicts that millers will shun locally produced maize over the next few weeks in anticipation of cheaper maize from abroad. "There is resistance to prices rising above the $205 to $210 per metric tonne level due to the anticipated arrival of maize to be imported. It appears that government has put all the necessary guarantees in place for the maize to start coming into the country," ACE said in a weekly bulletin. The exchange said many large millers had decided to produce below capacity until the cheaper maize arrived. The miller's stance is partly a response to political pressure. With presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 27 December, President Frederick Chiluba and his Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) have made the price of maize meal an electoral campaign issue. On 25 November, for example, MMD presidential aspirant Levy Mwanawasa charged that the government would not supply maize to "unscrupulous" millers who he said charged exorbitant prices for their meal with the sole purpose of inciting the people against the ruling party. "I do not believe there is a shortage of maize in the country. What is happening is that some millers are stockpiling and creating a shortage to charge unreasonable prices. These people are working against the government because they want the people to rise against the MMD during the elections," Mwanawasa said. His perception contradicts the findings of official food security assessments. According to the disaster management unit in the vice-president's office, the country is faced with a crucial grain shortage that will require the importation of some 300,000 mt of commercial maize and around 50,000 mt more in emergency food aid. Secretary to the cabinet Leslie Mbulo said over the weekend that about two million people were in need of emergency food aid. The government has released four billion Kwacha (about $1 million) for relief maize supplies while the Italian government has pledged 2,500 mt of maize and the World Food programme (WFP) has undertaken to mobilise 42,000 mt more from international donors. But the impending shortage is not the only reason for the high price of Zambian maize. Economic observers say that Zambian maize is more expensive than that of its neighbours largely because the country's production costs are higher. The Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU) has repeatedly complained that local interest rates, electricity tariffs and fuel prices are higher than the sub-regional average. The Economic Association of Zambia fears that such imbalances encourage produce dumping on the Zambian market and stifles its productive base. "It is very, very sad. We have an economy which allows other countries to dump goods we can produce on the market," said association executive director Matondo Yeta. "Common sense suggests that this imported maize is being dumped, and we should not allow it to destroy our local producers," she added.