IRIN Focus on relations with South Africa

As Zimbabweans prepare to vote in controversial parliamentary elections this weekend, South African President Thabo Mbeki’s strategy of not publicly condemning the political violence unleashed by Zimbabwe’s ruling party has been criticised. South Africa is the regional superpower and Zimbabwe’s main trading partner. But, while Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe has been pilloried internationally for his attempts to supress a lively opposition movement, Mbeki has settled for a “softly-softly” approach towards his influential neighbour. Said Laurie Nathan of the Cape Town-based Centre for Conflict Resolution (CCR): “President Mbeki’s assumption that shouting from roof tops would not help the situation in Zimbabwe is correct. However, the assumption that quiet diplomacy would influence President Mugabe to halt farm invasions and prevent violence and intimidation was incorrect.” He added that Mugabe has long proven to be an authoritarian leader who is currently fighting for his political survival. Zimbabwe’s political stability has deteriorated since February after Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party lost a constitutional referendum that sought to entrench presidential powers and provide for white-owned land to be seized without compensation. Mugabe loses referendum Shortly after Mugabe lost the referendum - in which the fledgling opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) successfully campaigned for a “No” vote against the proposed changes - former liberation war veterans and their ZANU-PF supporters started occupying white-owned farms with the full backing of Mugabe. More than 30 people - mostly supporters of the MDC, including four white farmers - have been killed following the invasions. Mbeki’s approach also included lobbying British, US and European governments to release funds to finance Zimbabwe’s land reform programme. But Nathan believes that the process of land reform, rather than the question of finances, is the key problem: “The land that has already been redistributed in Zimbabwe was given to ZANU-PF officials and not to landless peasants.” Mugabe ignores Mbeki’s pleas Claude Kabemba of the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), agrees that Mbeki’s appeals to Mugabe for an orderly land reform programme and a peaceful election campaign have fallen on deaf ears. He argued, however, that a conflictual approach by Mbeki would have been counter-productive. “Mbeki’s approach to Zimbabwe shows consistency in the ruling ANC’s strategy that it seeks peaceful resolution to crises in the region and the continent in general,” Kabemba told IRIN. He said this strategy presents Mbeki with an important communication channel to Mugabe and his government. “South Africa, unlike the bigpowers like Britain and the US, does not possess a big stick to wield against Zimbabwe. However, Mbeki’s strategy has earned him respect among members of Mugabe’s ruling party, which is important for future relations between the two governments.” Kabemba added that Mbeki’s intervention with Britain, for example, has helped to reduce public mud-slinging between Mugabe and Peter Hain, Britain’s Minister in charge of Africa. “Since Mbeki’s meetings with Prime Minister Tony Blair for example, there has been less public criticism of Mugabe by Hain,” Kabemba argued. Both analysts agree, however, that the immediate future of Zimbabwe does not engender optimism. Said Nathan: “It is hard to see a positive outcome to the current situation. The situation is likely to deteriorate over the next six to 12 months as a result of political conditions that are not conducive to free political activity and expression.” Kabemba said it is unthinkable that ZANU-PF will accept defeat. “ZANU-PF will win the elections, which will present Mbeki with an opportunity to influence Mugabe and his party on policies to be adopted in addressing Zimbabwe’s problems,” said Kabemba. He added that it was important to remember that Mugabe only faces the electorate in 2002 in the presidential elections. He said that this is where Mbeki’s influence will matter the most. “Mbeki has established a working relationship with Mugabe, which he can leverage after (this weekend’s) elections to help restructure Zimbabwe’s society.” It is widely believed that Mbeki has made the assessment that ZANU-PF will win the parliamentary poll, but Mugabe may not stand in 2002. The South African approach, therefore, is to look to a post-Mugabe “reformed” ZANU-PF with which to do business. Nathan, however, expressed concern that continued support for ZANU-PF in the absence of free and fair elections would amount to supporting an undemocratic state and would be viewed as such by many Zimbabweans.