IRIN Focus on Obasanjo's changing political fortunes

[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations] It took labour unions in Nigeria five days to press President Olusegun Obasanjo, through a general strike, into reducing fuel price increases imposed on 1 June. However, an ongoing tussle between the executive and the legislature - which also opposed the measure - is likely to continue for much longer, analysts say. The fact that the government and the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) settled for a 10-percent increase in the price of gasolene and diesel, and returned to the old price of kerosene was widely described as a victory for the country's one-year-old democracy, which followed more than 15 years of military dictatorship. But if there was any loser at all, it certainly was the elected government, analysts said. "Under our previous military rulers the fuel price increases always stood, but not because people did not protest," Chuba Ikenna, a constitutional lawyer, told IRIN. "People did protest, but immediately policemen and soldiers were sent into the streets to shoot protesters and labour leaders were quickly clamped into detention. But such brutal repression has not been possible under Obasanjo's elected government and that's precisely why the government failed to push through the price hike," Ikenna added. Obasanjo, who was a military ruler in the early 1970s, has often been accused by his critics of still operating like a military dictator despite being an elected civilian president. The price hike was the latest in a series of controversial presidential actions that have fuelled such accusations and led to battles over the past year between the executive and the legislature, dominated by the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP). Other contentious issues include Obasanjo's response to amendments which both houses of parliament made to his Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) bill, aimed in part at spurring development in the troubled oil-producing area so as to defuse tensions there. Obasanjo proposed a contribution of 2 percent of oil companies' budget to the commission and limited its source of funds to the companies' onshore oil operations. The legislature amended the companies' contribution to 3 percent and extended the source of funds to include offshore as well as onshore oil operations. Parliament added that the appointment of top NDDC personnel must be approved by the legislature. The house passed its version of the bill in March and was applauded in the oil-producing areas, which have long suffered deprivation. However, Obasanjo refused to accept it. Instead he wrote to the national assembly in May, well after the 30-day limit for him to sign the bill had passed, asking that the amendments be reconsidered. Legislators chose to stand their ground rather than heed Obasanjo's appeal and in their reply, gave the president notice of their intention to override his veto by passing the bill into law by May 31. Another development that helped widen the gulf between the two arms of government was Obasanjo's move to declare May 29 - the anniversary of his inauguration - an annual public holiday. He did this by decree instead of going through the legislature as prescribed in the 1999 Constitution. The decision of Senate President Chuba Okadigbo and the speaker of the House of Representatives, Ghali Umar N'Abba, to boycott the anniversary ceremonies - attended by foreign heads of state - only led to a further hardening of positions between the legislature and the executive. On 1 June, the House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to override the president's veto and pass the NDDC bill. But when the Senate, which was scheduled to do the same thing on that day, was suddenly adjourned for six weeks by Okadigbo, it was a sign that things were getting out of hand. Parliamentary sources said frantic efforts had been put in motion by the presidency to stop the passage of the NDDC bill by the Senate, including a plot to remove Okadigbo as Senate president and replace him with a more malleable candidate - which he tried to forestall by adjourning the sitting. The subsequent invasion of Okadigbo's residence by armed policemen who said they were looking for "the mace" and acting "on orders from above", lent even more weight to suspicions that the executive was backing a group of dissident senators who needed the parliamentary symbol to give legality to a planned session to unseat Okadigbo. In the meantime the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) had surreptitiously introduced the 50-percent fuel hike on the orders of Obasanjo, once more without informing the legislature. This further inflamed an already charged political atmosphere. After PDP Chairman Barnabas Gemade brokered a truce to save the party a great embarrassment, the Senate reconvened on 6 June only to condemn the fuel price hike and finally pass the NDDC bill with another overwhelming majority, firmly overruling Obasanjo's objections. Both houses have since begun on a long recess, taking with them the political credit for what had been one of Obasanjo's main campaign promises. "If you look at what is happening, it's not just the executive arm of government against the legislature. It is the executive versus all sectors of the Nigerian society," parliamentarian Farouk Lawan from the northern state of Kano told the 'Comet' newspaper in criticism of Obasanjo's perceived highhandedness. "Even the timing of the fuel price increases was very poor. It was early in June and a few days to important dates in June," student activist Taiwo Adenaike told IRIN. He was referring to the anniversary of the death of late military strongman General Sani Abacha, whose sudden death on 8 June 1998 paved the way for the current democracy. June 12 was also the anniversary of the 1993 elections annulled by the military, which brought back memories of the protests and resistance that followed. To mark this year's remembrance, students and pro-democracy groups called rallies and made speeches denouncing Obasanjo. "We had high hopes when the man (Obasanjo) was elected into office, but rather than improve our welfare he seems to be making things worse. Does he hope to seek our mandate again with this type of performance?" Adenaike said.