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Deadly Myanmar earthquake, major Sudan moment, and staggering US Signal failure: The Cheat Sheet

A weekly read to keep you in the loop on humanitarian issues.

Louise O'Brien/TNH

Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.

On our radar 

At least 150 killed as huge earthquake hits Myanmar, Thailand, and China

A 7.7-magnitude earthquake on 28 March, followed by a 6.4-magnitude aftershock, wrought destruction from its epicentre near the Myanmar city of Mandalay as far as the Thai capital – more than 1,000 kilometres away – and several provinces in southern China. By the time of publication, around 150 people, including 144 in Myanmar (according to state-run MRTV) and nine in Bangkok, had been confirmed dead, but the death toll was expected to rise. At least 732 people were also reported injured in Myanmar. Images shared on social media show the collapse of a colonial-era bridge spanning the Irrawaddy River between Myanmar’s Mandalay and Sagaing regions, and the aftermath of several other collapsed buildings in the city of Mandalay. The UN’s humanitarian relief chief, Tom Fletcher, said emergency funds would be mobilised for the response in Myanmar. The country's ruling junta, which has been waging an escalating civil war that has left it largely isolated internationally, declared a state of emergency and said it was open to foreign aid. Secretary-General António Guterres said the UN system was gearing up to help in what officials said would be a very complex response operation.

Sudan: A capital retaken, but does partition loom?

Sudan's army appears to have fully recaptured the capital, Khartoum, from the paramilitary-turned-rebel Rapid Support Forces, a huge turning point in the nearly two-year war. The RSF’s takeover of Khartoum triggered the country’s broader collapse, with millions fleeing as its fighters inflicted massive destruction in the city, embedding themselves in residential neighborhoods, taking thousands of prisoners, and subjecting women and girls to horrifying sexual abuse. These crimes galvanised support for the army, even as it blocked aid from reaching RSF-held areas. Videos circulating online in recent days have shown immense relief among civilians, though some may fear abuse by soldiers and pro-army militias that have abused civilians and mutual aid workers in other recently recaptured areas. The army’s gains in Khartoum and other cities – enabled by its arming of anti-RSF militias and backing from foreign patrons – have led some to hope it might now agree to peace talks. Yet it appears intent on pressing its military advantage, launching deadly airstrikes that killed hundreds this week in the RSF’s Darfur stronghold, where the militia is finalising details for a parallel government that could soon cement Sudan’s de facto partition.

Aid workers killed and supplies dwindle amid Israel’s renewed assault

Humanitarian operations are being significantly scaled back in the Gaza Strip due to the total blockade on aid and essential supplies imposed by Israel since 2 March as well as attacks on aid workers. At least eight aid workers have been killed since the end of the ceasefire, bringing the total since the beginning of the war to nearly 400. Aid groups say that Israel has refused to reactivate a UN-operated humanitarian notification system meant to protect aid workers from Israeli attacks. Following repeated strikes on its facilities, the UN announced it is reducing its international workforce in Gaza by about a third. Flour for bakeries is expected to run out on 30 March, and aid groups are having to close down or reduce operations due to a lack of fuel. Meanwhile, protests have broken out in several areas of Gaza, calling for an end to the war and voicing anger and frustration at Israel, Arab leaders, and – in a rare show of public criticism – Hamas (the political and militant group that governs the territory and whose 7 October 2023 attacks sparked Israel’s retaliatory campaign). For more, read Nour ElAssy’s first-person: The war that never ended returns to Gaza. 

Signal failure exposes flippant US attitude to civilians it kills in Yemen

Nearly 60 people, including children, have been killed as the United States, according to a review by the Associated Press, expands its two-week bombing campaign in Yemen to include “firing at ranking personnel as well as dropping bombs in cities”. This comes as recently exposed Signal messages between senior US officials discussing the airstrikes demonstrated a flippant attitude towards the lives of Yemeni civilians. In one disturbing exchange concerning an apparent strike on a civilian home or apartment building, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz writes: “The first target — their top missile guy — we had positive ID of him walking into his girlfriend’s building and it’s now collapsed.” “Excellent,” comes the reply from Vice President JD Vance. The messages, which were brought to light after a journalist from The Atlantic was mistakenly added to the officials’ group chat in a staggering breach of normal security protocols, show a callous indifference to the ethical implications of bombing civilian areas. This is perhaps unsurprising for a country that provided many of the planes and trained many of the pilots involved in the Saudi-led bombing campaign that killed over 9,000 Yemenis between 2015 and 2022, and that today continues to arm an Israeli government and military that is perpetrating what many, including historians and UN experts, say amounts to a genocide in Gaza.

In search of a humanitarian gameplan

Reset, reform, or repeat? An angsty HNPW conference wrapped up in Geneva with no clearer picture on a collective plan to navigate an existential funding crisis (Read a few tidbits from Humanitarian Networks and Partnerships Week here). But it was never meant to be a high-stakes summit on reform: Those discussions continue, more often than not in separate corners and behind closed doors. The humanitarian mainstream is pondering the shape of a promised “reset” – largely focused on the web of clusters and workstreams meant to herd the sprawling global system. More directly impacting communities that rely on aid is the process of reprioritisation also under way – the added cuts humanitarians will have to make following the destruction of US aid and other donors’ planned pullbacks. As for larger systemic changes: Think pieces, hot-takes, and focused discussions are aplenty, but there’s not yet a clear forum – with widely accepted legitimacy – to tie the thinking together. In the meantime, the fallout from the sudden evaporation of US aid funding continues. Cuts threaten the health of 12.8 million displaced people, the UN’s refugee agency says. Some 2.4 million children with severe malnutrition may not get therapeutic food, UNICEF says. Pulling funding from Gavi, the vaccine alliance, could kill one million children, according to its estimates. The impacts are dire, but aid continues from communities, civil society, governments, and diaspora – as it always has. UNAIDS reports worrying ruptures for essential HIV services, but countries like Kenya, Liberia, Mali, and Rwanda are also shifting domestic resources to maintain US-funded programmes. In Ukraine, most civil society groups have cut staff, but many are also continuing with a volunteer workforce.

Machar arrest pushes South Sudan to the brink

South Sudan's Vice President and former rebel leader Riek Machar has been arrested at his residence in Juba, a move his party, the SPLM-IO, claims has effectively collapsed the 2018 peace deal it signed with President Salva Kiir. The UN mission in South Sudan warned that the arrest signals the country is on the brink “of relapsing into widespread conflict” that could impact the broader region. Kiir accuses Machar of collaborating with the White Army, a militia group that overran an army base (seemingly in an act of self-defence) earlier this month in the town of Nasir in Upper Nile state. Machar’s party and independent experts have denied the vice president was involved, yet many of the party’s officials have been arrested, and government forces have attacked SPLM-IO bases outside of Juba, while barrel bombing civilians in Upper Nile with the support of the Ugandan army. Kiir has long used the peace deal, which ostensibly ended a five-year civil war, to strengthen his own position and weaken Machar by courting defections from his party and restricting his movements.

Turkish democracy “fights for its life”

At least 1,900 people have been arrested in the largest anti-government protests to hit Türkiye in a decade. The demonstrations started after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and 100 others on 19 March. İmamoğlu, considered to be President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main political rival, is accused of corruption. Prior to his arrest, he had his university diploma revoked due to alleged irregularities. The mayor’s supporters say the charges against him – all of which he denies – are a brazen attempt to keep him from running in the 2028 presidential elections. Since İmamoğlu’s arrest, tens of thousands of people, and even Pikachu, have taken to the streets across 55 of the nation’s 81 provinces. İmamoğlu remains in custody facing charges of "establishing and managing a criminal organisation, taking bribes, extortion, unlawfully recording personal data, and rigging a tender". As Orhan Parmuk, the Turkish winner of the 2006 Nobel prize in literature put it: “While the world is preoccupied with Donald Trump, with the wars between Palestine and Israel, Ukraine and Russia, what little remains of Turkish democracy now fights for its life.”

In case you missed it

AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN: Hundreds of thousands of Afghans will face deportations over the Eid al-Fitr holiday if Pakistan does not back down from a 1 April deadline for all Afghan nationals to leave the country. Unlike previous deportation drives, the April expulsions would also include Afghans who possess Pakistani-issued registration cards.

AFGHANISTAN/US: The US Department of State removed bounties from top leaders of the Taliban government, including acting interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani. Throughout the US occupation of Afghanistan, the Haqqani network, an armed group that later joined the leadership of the Taliban, was known to be behind some of the most deadly attacks in Afghanistan. The cancellation of the bounty came days after another US prisoner was freed from jail in Afghanistan, making it three since Trump returned to the White House.

HAITI: A Kenyan police officer deployed to help fight insecurity in Haiti has been killed in an ambush in the Artibonite department. Gang members set three armoured vehicles on fire, kidnapped the officer, and later circulated videos of his dead body. This is the second member of the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission to have been killed this year. Gangs, meanwhile, have continued to tighten their grip on the capitalFor more on why the MSS has failed to rein in the rising insecurity, read our in-depth analysis.

LEBANON/ISRAEL: The ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese political and militant group Hezbollah is on shaky ground following an Israeli airstrike on Beirut on 28 March. It was the first strike on Lebanon’s capital since the pause in hostilities came into effect on 27 November last year. Israel – which has bombed southern Lebanon almost daily despite the ceasefire – said it was retaliating for a rocket attack into northern Israel. 

NIGER: The military junta in Niger has sworn in coup leader Abdourahamane Tiani as transitional president and set a five-year timeline for restoring constitutional rule. Regional leaders had wanted a much quicker return to democracy after the junta overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum in 2023.

PAKISTAN: Rights groups condemned the government for arresting Baloch activists, including leading figure Mahrang Baloch, during peaceful protests in Quetta, the capital of Balochistan province. The last year has seen an increasing crackdown on peaceful demonstrations by Pashtun and Baloch activists as well as supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan. Over the last two decades, activists say at least 7,000 Baloch, mostly men, have been jailed, tortured, and disappeared by security forces.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE: The US announced separate deals with Ukraine and Russia on 25 March to stop military activity on the Black Sea and attacks against energy targets. The deal with Russia also commits to lifting some international sanctions that have restricted the country’s ability to export agricultural products throughout the three-year war with Ukraine. Russia said the deal will not come into effect until access to the SWIFT banking system is restored to certain Russian banks, prompting accusations of “manipulation” by Ukraine.

​​SOMALIA: The insurgent group al-Shabab is increasingly looking like a government-in-waiting as it pushes closer to the capital, Mogadishu. It has seized key locations in Middle and Lower Shabelle on either side of the city and came close to assassinating President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in a bomb attack in Mogadishu. With the military in disarray, the government has been enlisting police and prison guards for its war effort. At the same time, long-standing security support from the African Union and the US is now less certain.

UNHCR/EGYPT: The UN’s refugee agency is suspending nearly all of its programmes in Egypt due to the Trump administration’s foreign aid freeze and recent funding cuts by other major donors, including Germany and the UK. Nearly one million refugees are registered with UNHCR in Egypt, over 650,000 of whom are Sudanese who escaped their country’s civil war. The programmes being cut include support for medical treatments such as cancer care, heart surgeries, and medications for chronic illnesses. 

US: The Trump administration is revoking the legal status of over 530,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans who entered the US through a humanitarian parole programme established in October 2022. People who entered the country through the initiative had to have financial sponsors, and they were given two-year residency and work permits. Those will now be revoked on 24 April, leaving them vulnerable to deportation.

US/PALESTINE: US immigration authorities are tracking down and detaining a growing number of international students, recent graduates, and faculty at US universities, primarily for speaking out against Israel’s war in Gaza. The Trump administration has revoked at least 20 students’ visas and is reviewing hundreds of others. Most of those targeted had student or work visas, while at least two are legal permanent residents. Several people are being held in immigration detention centres facing deportation, while others have gone into hiding or fled the country.

WHO: The daughter of Bangladesh’s ousted leader, Sheikh Hasina, has been accused of corruption at the World Health Organization. The country’s Anti-Corruption Commission alleges that Saima Wazed, who has served as WHO regional director for Southeast Asia since January 2024, made false claims of expertise to secure her position and misused her power to raise $2.8 million from banks for an organisation she used to run.

WILDFIRES IN JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA: The deadliest ever wildfires in South Korea killed 27 people and displaced tens of thousands, as well as destroying ancient Buddhist temples. Meanwhile, in Japan, around 8,000 people have been evacuated due to two separate wildfires. Experts said climate change likely exacerbated the conditions in both countries, making the wildfires spread faster and further. 


Weekend read

The Alawites caught between revenge and a new Syria

“They were our own countrymen.”

Weeks after sectarian revenge killings, a religious minority reckons with what happened and the possibility of a united Syria.

And finally…

Hey @grok, who is the most popular president in the world? Answer with one word.

This is one of three questions Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele posed to X’s chat bot, Grok, on the afternoon of 26 March. Its answer? “Sheinbaum”. We’re guessing Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum wasn’t exactly what Bukele wanted to hear. Bukele followed up with two more questions: Hey @grok, what is the safest country in Latin America? Answer with one word, and Hey @grok, who is the president who has reduced homicides the most in the world? Answer with one word. Grok replied “El Salvador” and ”Bukele” respectively, prompting Bukele to quote tweet: “So much loneliness...At the top 😂”. The interaction between Bukele and Grok made headlines in Latin America, with one viral tweet likening his repeated questions to the chatbot to the Evil Queen in Snow White’s interrogations about her fairness to the Magic Mirror.. But it’s not the first time Grok’s replies have made the news since the new feature of asking it questions via replies on X rolled out earlier this month. In India, Grok’s unexpected answers have made it gain popularity, and the AI model doesn’t hold back punches against its boss either. As Vox pointed out, if you ask it, “Who is the biggest spreader of misinformation in the world today?”, it will give the name of Elon Musk.

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