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Syria post-Assad, Haiti’s worsening year, and AI weapons: The Cheat Sheet

A weekly read to keep you in the loop on humanitarian issues.

Cheat Sheet Louise O'brien/TNH

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Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe. This is the last Cheat Sheet of the year. Regular programming will resume on 10 January 2025. Happy New Year, when it comes!

On our radar

Syria’s first week without al-Assad

Within a week of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fleeing the country for Russia, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – the rebel group that led a rapid offensive through Idlib, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and into Damascus – has already appointed a caretaker prime minister to run a transitional government until at least March 2025: Mohammed al-Bashir, who had been leading its de facto government in Idlib. Foreign governments, including those who donate to the aid response to Syria, are still figuring out how to engage with the group, which – at the time of writing at least – remains sanctioned as a terrorist organisation by the UN, the US, the UK, and others. While Syrians are celebrating the fall of al-Assad, they are also trying to come to terms with the horrors of his family’s 53-year rule, as thousands of prisoners have been released from notorious Sednaya prison, a centre of torture and murder. Most never made it out. With the political map of Syria now redrawn, questions remain about who will run the country and how, what will become of millions of refugees and displaced people, and how aid will be delivered in a country where needs are at their highest point since the civil war began in 2011. But despite such concerns, young people in Damascus who have lived their entire lives in the shadow of al-Assad’s brutal rule told The New Humanitarian they are hopeful they can finally help bring about positive change. Read more here. 

As the year ends, Haiti’s troubles go from bad to worse

Insecurity continues to deepen Haiti's multiple crises. On 6 and 7 December, more than 180 people – mostly elderly – were killed in Port-au-Prince by members of a gang whose leader targeted followers of the Vodou religion, blaming them for his son’s illness. Days later, an attack in the Artibonite department caused yet more bloodshed, another example of the violence extending well beyond the capital. In the past few weeks, gangs have consolidated their grip on new areas of Port-au-Prince, forcing the international airport to close and humanitarian workers to relocate outside the country. According to the latest report from the Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti (IJDH), “Haiti now has the highest level of internal displacement due to crime-related violence in the world.” Meanwhile, a new UN study revealed that three quarters of the more than 700,000 displaced Haitians reported having received no humanitarian assistance at all. One in two Haitians face acute hunger. The gang violence has killed at least 5,000 people between January and November, while killings by vigilante groups are also escalating.

Israel allows in aid convoy: This shouldn’t be news

While Israel allowed a joint UN convoy to deliver food aid to a reported 200,000 people in south and central Gaza this week, the mere fact that this is news illustrates just how rare such deliveries have become in a place where the World Food Programme recently said, “levels of hunger, devastation and destruction in Gaza … [are now] worse than ever before.” It’s not just food that is in desperately short supply: Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP) has said that a new evacuation order from the Israeli army could force the closure of one of the only neonatal intensive care units in besieged northern Gaza, which is also the only NICU that accepts premature babies. This sort of denial and obstruction of aid by Israel, alongside repeated attacks on aid and aid workers (on 12 December, for example, medics said airstrikes killed 12 people who were guarding aid trucks), is just one of the reasons The New Humanitarian is calling on aid groups to speak out about Israel’s atrocities against Palestinians in Gaza. Also this week, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly voted to demand an immediate permanent ceasefire and the release of hostages. It was not the UNGA’s first such demand, but it was the first time Italy and Germany voted in favour, leaving the United States as the only G7 member to oppose the non-binding resolution.

War crimes in Sudan don’t just implicate the RSF

War crimes committed by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Darfur have come under considerable scrutiny over the past year and a half, but the Sudanese army is also responsible for massacres in the western region. On 9 December, the army reportedly launched airstrikes on the RSF-held town of Kabkabiya in North Darfur state, killing over 100 people, including women and children, according to a local lawyers group. The number of army airstrikes in Darfur has increased in recent months, and may be linked to the military purchasing new fighter jets. Though the strikes are supposed to target RSF positions, they have destroyed hospitals and public infrastructure and killed large numbers of civilians. The war in Sudan began in April 2023 and has produced the world’s largest displacement crisis, uprooting over 11 million people, and the biggest hunger crisis. See our latest stories for more.

Port deal eases tensions in Horn of Africa

Ethiopia and Somalia have agreed a deal that ends a bitter feud over Addis Ababa's plans to develop a port and naval base in the breakaway republic of Somaliland. The agreement, brokered in Türkiye between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, ensures landlocked Ethiopia's access to the sea while respecting Somalia’s territorial sovereignty. Its details will be hammered out in technical talks beginning in February. The accord eclipses an earlier memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland that granted Addis Ababa access to the coast. The Ankara deal also clears the way for Ethiopian troops, battling the jihadist group al-Shabab, to remain in Somalia. Mogadishu had demanded their replacement with Egyptian forces – Ethiopia’s regional rival – as part of a new UN-approved mission. Commercially, the port accord is a mutually beneficial win-win. It also comes ahead of mooted recognition of Somaliland by President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming US administration.

The future is now: Military tech and rights

Autonomous weapons, brain-computer interfaces, cognitive warfare, particle beams, and AI-boosted biological and nuclear command tech: These cheery examples of ”new and emerging technologies in the military domain” are on the agenda for an upcoming session of the Human Rights Council’s advisory committee. The UN body’s self-described think tank is weighing the rights implications for a range of future-minded issues during its 16-20 December meeting, from military tech, to disinformation and human rights, to artificial intelligence and governance, to violence against women and girls amplified by technology. A draft report on military tech has recommendations to states and the private sector to “urgently develop” strategies for responsible design and use. But has the train already left the station? Military observers, analysts, and rights groups say Israel has deployed a host of new tech in its mass slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, including AI-targeting systems with little human oversight. “The killing fields of Gaza are testing out the weaponry of robotic automated AI weapons… that may be coming to a neighbourhood near you very soon,” said Daniel Levy, an analyst and former Israeli peace negotiator, speaking at this month’s Doha Forum. “And that should concern everyone.”

 

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In case you missed it

AFGHANISTAN: Acting Minister of Refugees and Repatriation Khalil Haqqani was killed in a suicide bombing in his Kabul offices – the highest-profile murder of a Taliban official since the group returned to power in 2021. The so-called Islamic State claimed responsibility for the killing of Haqqani, who was the uncle of acting Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO: Congolese soldiers brutally suppressed an October 2023 demonstration demanding the departure of the UN peacekeeping mission in DRC, killing at least 56 people and injuring over 80, according to an Amnesty International report. The report calls for the former governor of the North Kivu province and two other senior army officers to be investigated for possible crimes against humanity.

DENGUE: The Pan American Health Organization warned that the Americas have registered the biggest dengue epidemic ever this year – tripling the number of cases in 2023. Some 12.6 million people were infected, including 7,700 who died. PAHO attributed the massive rise to climate change (causing better breeding conditions across a wider area), urbanisation, and the lack of effective waste and stagnant water controls. It also expressed particular concern about the “higher-than-normal” risk for children

FRANCE/CHAD/SENEGAL: France has begun withdrawing its military from Chad after the government in N’Djamena ended a defence pact with the former colonial power. Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has also called on France to close its army bases, describing them as “incompatible” with Senegal’s sovereignty. France has a long history of post-colonial military meddling in Africa, shoring up allies and punishing foes according to its perceived national interests.

LEBANON: US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Israeli troops had completed their first withdrawal from a town in south Lebanon, handing control to the Lebanese army as part of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah. The US and France are monitoring the deal, which requires Hezbollah and Israel to leave south Lebanon in 60 days.

MEDITERRANEAN: Médecins Sans Frontières announced it has ended its lifesaving search-and-rescue operations in the Mediterranean with the Geo Barents salvage ship, stating: “Italian laws and policies have made it impossible to continue with the current operational model.” MSF said the vessel had rescued more than 12,500 people in the central Mediterranean since June 2021.

MOZAMBIQUE: More than 110 people have been killed – as many as 34 just last week – in an ongoing crackdown by the security forces on street protests over October’s disputed elections. Amnesty International has called on regional governments – and the UN and African Union – to take action “to end this nightmare”. The youth-led revolt has shut down much of the country, but there are signs the government may now be willing to talk.

MYANMAR: The rebel Arakan Army announced its full control of Myanmar’s western border with Bangladesh after the capture of the last junta base in Maungdaw township on 11 December. It said it had captured a general and dozens of other soldiers, including around 80 Rohingya fighters, raising fears of reprisals against the Muslim minority. The Arakan Army seeks autonomy for ethnic Rakhine people and is part of an alliance of ethnic armed groups that has also seized key towns in eastern Myanmar.

NICARAGUA: UN experts called on Daniel Ortega’s regime to stop forced disappearances and arbitrary detentions to silence opponents and critics. Since 2021, at least 427 people have been arrested, but in 2024 detentions showed a new pattern: Almost 100% of those arrested remain “disappeared”

NIGERIA: Gunmen kidnapped more than 50 women and children in a raid on Kakin Dawa village in Nigeria's northwest Zamfara state. Residents said men carrying assault rifles went door to door, and then left on motorbikes with their victims. Read our reporting for more on what is a common practice in the region.

POLAND/BELARUS: Poland is unlawfully pushing asylum seekers back over its border into Belarus, often using batons and pepper spray, and refusing to allow them to apply for asylum, according to a new report by Human Rights Watch. At least 87 people have died near both sides of the border since 2021, including 14 this year.

SOMALIA: Federal troops have pulled out of the southwestern Lower Juba region – with hundreds fleeing into neighbouring Kenya – following heavy fighting with local forces. The clashes took place around the coastal town of Ras Kamboni after semi-autonomous Jubbaland re-elected its president, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe. Mogadishu declared last month’s poll illegal. It had wanted to align Jubbaland's ballot with its plans for elections under nationwide universal suffrage next year.

YEMEN: The US military says it has fended off attacks by Houthi rebels on three merchant vessels it was escorting through the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis (officially known as Ansar Allah) have been attacking shipping in the Gulf since shortly after Israel began its assault on Gaza in what they say is a gesture of solidarity with Palestinians.


Weekend read

The loss and damage fund should open for business in 2025. Will it be fit for purpose?

“It’s about a systemic approach that's nationally led rather than just sort of a first through the door application process for projects.”

2025 could see funds disbursed for the first time, but how will it work, who will benefit, and why is there so little money in its coffers?

And finally…

Migration: People’s stories

With the UK temporarily pausing Syrian asylum decisions after the fall of al-Assad, now is a good time for a reminder – via art – of why people migrate, what their experiences are like, and how central migration is central to all our lives. “All our stories: Migration and the making of Britain”, which brings together the Migration Museum’s past decade of work at its new London location, is open through to 20 December 2025. If you can’t make it to London by then but are seeking inspiration about where to find imagery that counters the dehumanising images we so often see of refugees and other people on the move, here’s a piece about some of the artists and artworks on show. 

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