UN report predicts record harvest

A record bumper harvest of food and cereals with a large surplus is expected in Sudan in 2004 by virtue of improved security and favourable weather conditions, but up to 3.6 million people in war-affected regions will still need food aid, a joint UN assessment report has projected. The Special Report, jointly commissioned by the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation and the World Food Programme, forecast a record cereal harvest of 6.3 million t for Sudan in 2003/04, 63 percent higher than last year's production and 47 percent above the average of the previous five years. The report, released on Thursday, attributes the improved food prospects on favourable weather, timely provision of agricultural inputs and fewer outbreaks of pests or diseases. "Rainfall throughout most of the country was generally favourable during the 2003 cropping season, and cereal production benefited from a relatively low incidence of pests," the report said. The report, based on a UN assessment mission which visited southern Sudan between 9 October and 30 October 2003 and northern Sudan between 8 November and 1 December 2003, however, noted that market prices for sorghum, one of the main staples, had already begun falling sharply due to a glut in the main producing areas, which could force farmers to sharply reduce the area planted next season. Up to 3.6 million people, especially in western region of Darfur, where escalation of conflict has resulted in massive population displacement, and areas in the south affected by civil unrest would also needed "targeted" food assistance amounting to 249,278 t, the report stated. "The escalating civil conflict in the three Darfur states has already caused a massive displacements of over a million people, and access to food has been sharply curtailed," the report stated. "People have lost the bulk of their current harvest; if the conflict is not resolved in the next few months, it is highly probable that they will also miss the upcoming planting season and thus lose next season’s harvest as well," it added. The number of beneficiaries for food assistance was also adjusted upwards due to the voluntary return of about 300 000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) who would require food assistance in 2004, the report added. "These returnees will also require agricultural inputs [seeds, hand tools, fishing equipment and support for livestock] to enable them resume their farming activities," the report said. In the south, the report noted, conditions for crop and livestock production were better than last year, with generally well-distributed rainfall and a low incidence of pests, in addition to increased security which has allowed the cultivation of more land in the traditional sector and a significant expansion of the area under mechanised production. "The overall food situation is therefore highly favourable: there is the possibility of increased food availability and access for a large number of vulnerable groups, except in the west where the situation is less transparent," the report said. Increased prospects for peace in the southern part of the country, heralded by the significant progress recently made in talks to end the country's 20-year civil war, could also usher in thousands of returnees in need of food aid. According to the report, an estimated 400 000 IDPs and 110 000 refugees are set to return to their places of origin or choice in Sudan during the first 12 months of the implementation of a piece agreement between the government and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army. [See full report on: www.fao.org]