Analyst outlines election challenges

As the United Nations election assessment team continues its work in Iraq, one analyst said there are three main obstacles to preparing the country for an election. "Logistical, security and favouring certain groups by rushing an election," Joost Hiltermann, Middle East Project Director for the International Crisis Group (ICG) told IRIN from the Jordanian capital, Amman. "You don't need a census to hold an election. In fact it may be dangerous to hold a census because, depending on the questions you ask, you may end up with a group saying we are the majority and therefore we should have x amount of power and if they say that then why have elections? So you may want to prevent that and create the voter rolls through other means," he explained. There have been calls from Shi'ite groups led by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani for direct elections to be held, instead of a transfer of sovereignty to Iraqis planned for 30 June. "Electoral experts can give you any number of means of how you can create a voter roll," the ICG official said. Moving on to the second obstacle, Hiltermann said security was the most difficult issue to deal with. "If you proceed with an election in this situation, the likelihood that some areas are going to be favoured compared to others is great," he maintained. He cited examples of the impact security could have on voting, saying that in some Sunni areas people could be intimidated at polling stations, even bombings, which could result in a national result in favour of the Shi'ite majority, only leading to further instability. Thirdly, holding an election too quickly could also lead to a biased result. "If you hold an election too fast you increase the chances for those groups who are best organised to win and the problem is those who are best organised are, by enlarge, the exiles who are deeply resented in Iraq. The Kurds as you know have certain ambitions politically and are just not respected by the rest of Iraq and the Shi'ite who present the majority views, and are also well organised," Hilternmann explained. The analyst said that the most important issue right now was what would happen after 30 June, the expected date for handover of sovereignty. "Is power going to be transferred and who is it going to be transferred to? If you're going to have an election early this year or next year, then who are you giving power to?" he asked, as the US has not given any details of this as yet, stating various options. "One option is to give it to the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC). The other option is to give it to the governing council but expand it to include people who more broadly represent the Iraqi people. The third possibility is to have a kind of Loya Jirga (grand council) arrangement in May organised by the United Nations that will produce a new leadership," he explained, adding that although a general election was the best option for Iraq, the model used in Afghanistan could be a viable one. "Its certainly worth studying," he said. The US wants to hold caucus style meetings to choose an Iraqi assembly, which would go on to chose a government. However, it is looking more likely that a general election would be held, Hiltermann said, following opposition to the plan. Commenting on the issue of Kurdish federalism he said this would not pose too many problems in the near future due to the agreement between the CPA and the Kurds. "The CPA conceded that the status quo in the Kurdish areas, i.e. the three governorates will continue as they are during the interim period, so basically recognising the Kurdish federal region in those three governorates. The Kurds conceded to postponing the explosive issue of Kirkuk until the constitutional process, which under the current timeline, is not supposed to start until April 2005," he explained.