Food shortage predicted

Tajikistan will suffer from an acute food shortage of about 300,000 mt this year despite good rains, United Nations officials warned on Tuesday. "Food supply in Tajikistan has been tight for the past three years, and emergency food aid has been necessary to prevent starvation in some parts of the country," Aziz Arya, an economist at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), told IRIN from Rome. He said an annual estimated requirement of about one million tonnes could hardly be met by domestic cereal production, estimated at about 388,000 mt. "Given the current production and import capacity estimates, there is a shortfall of about 303,000 mt of cereals, which has to be met through food aid," he added. However, food aid has hardly ever met the shortfall in the past. Tajikistan's national commercial import capacity is estimated at about 400,000 mt of wheat. Country director of the World Food Programme (WFP), Ardag Meghdessian, told IRIN from the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, that three factors have had negative impact on the food production. These comprised locust attack, rain and hailstorms in May, and massive landslides. Meghdessian said between 30,000 and 40,000 ha of crops could be threatened if locusts were not stopped through spraying of pesticides and chemicals in the next few weeks. In order to assess the situation, FAO and WFP are due to carry out a joint crop and food supply assessment mission in June, an exercise the two UN bodies also carried out in 2000 and 2001. "Drought or no drought, Tajikistan is a food-deficit country," Meghdessian said, adding: "The mission will look at the underlying reasons for the chronic food deficit." Arya said the locust invasion, which has already affected about 7,000 ha of land under crops in its early stages, would bring severe strains to bear on the country's capacity to feed itself. "The locust invasion, if not controlled, may lead to a crisis situation," he warned. The WFP has plans to provide at least 80,000 mt of food for the most vulnerable people of Tajikistan this year, up from 66,000 mt last year. The Rome-based FAO has also warned of food shortages in neighbouring Uzbekistan, which has suffered from a region-wide drought for three years. "Even though there have been rains, we are concerned about some areas," Arya said. According to a FAO report released in April, Uzbekistan's cereal import requirements are estimated at about one million tonnes. "Food aid requirement is estimated at about 162,000 mt, including 60,000 mt of wheat, 92,000 mt of rice and 10,000 mt of maize," it added.