IRIN Focus on the prospects for peace

Since the death of President Laurent-Desire Kabila on 16 January the different parties to the conflict appear to have expressed a desire to end the fighting as soon as possible. Western diplomatic sources say that the six external actors felt that the assassinated president was an obstacle to the peace process. These countries have all reaffirmed their commitment to the Lusaka peace accord. Whether or not the war continues will depend not only on their attitude to this agreement and the different UN Resolutions but also on the success of newly-installed President Joseph Kabila's diplomatic and economic initiatives. By increasing their military presence in Kinshasa, Angola, Zimbabwe and Namibia, DRC’s three allies, have managed to keep the city calm and helped to facilitate a peaceful transfer of power. Considered to be the ‘policeman’ of the region, Angola is putting pressure on the DRC to negotiate peace and to create the necessary conditions for withdrawal. Angola realises that if Kinshasa plunges into anarchy it will become the scapegoat. If it stays too long it also risks upsetting the local population which already barely tolerates the Angolan refugees who have been in the country for a long time. Meanwhile, Angola supports Kabila's son in the absence of any credible alternative. If Angola wants to pull out to redeploy its troops against UNITA, Zimbabwe is also looking to extricate itself from a war which is as costly as it is unpopular "if the economic interests of the elite in Harare are to be protected and the position of Robert Mugabe as a regional leader recognised," according to Fabienne Hara, an analyst in the International Crisis Group (ICG). "President Mugabe likes to say that he is fighting against neither Rwanda nor Uganda but that he doesn't accept one country invading another," a Western diplomat said, adding that Mugabe seemed more receptive to (Rwandan president) Kagame than (Ugandan president) Museveni. Hostilities between Angola and Zimbabwe could erupt and create a new dynamic, according to diplomatic sources contacted by IRIN. This rivalry can be seen in Kinshasa, where internal tensions have reportedly split the government between " doves" and "hawk", even though all accept Joseph Kabila’s nomination as leader. The late president’s close advisers (ministers Kakudji, Yerodia, Kongolo and Mpoyo), who are believed to be close to Zimbabwe, are reported to be more reluctant to enter into talks with the rebels than the pro- Angola "moderates" who include Foreign minister Leonard She Okitundu, Minister of Planning Colonel Denis Kalume and Colonel Eddy Kapend, who appealed for calm following Kabila’s assassination. In his address to the nation, Joseph Kabila pledged to help revive the Lusaka accord, while demanding the "immediate unconditional withdrawal" of Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. However, the accord envisages the simultaneous withdrawal of all foreign forces after the Inter-Congolese dialogue. But a diplomat said that "Joseph Kabila should opt for compromise and not take a different position at the moment". Rwanda, accused by Kinshasa of taking advantage of its presence in DRC to loot natural resources and intimidate local populations, maintains that it will not withdraw its troops from DRC until the Hutu extremists are arrested or disarmed. It is also waiting for a clear sign that the UN Mission in DRC (MONUC) will deploy its 5,500 peacekeepers, but a diplomat told IRIN that this deployment is still "hypothetical" given the size of the country and the very volatile situation in the East. Uganda, the same source said, wants a quick solution, but does not want to take a public position, preferring to wait for Rwanda to withdraw before following suit. Meanwhile, the Congolese opposition, both armed and unarmed, is calling for Masire, the facilitator, to start the inter-Congolese dialogue provided for in the Lusaka accords, and some individuals have even set a deadline of 30 days. The new DRC president has not yet met Masire, who was rejected by his father, but referred in his address to the Libreville process, hosted by Gabonese President Omar Bongo. However, the opposition describes this process –initiated by Laurent-Désiré Kabila- as a "red herring". But both the opposition and Masire accept the principle of a possible co-facilitation suggested by Kinshasa. Presidents Omar Bongo (Gabon), Abdou Diouf (Senegal) and the Community Sant' Egidio have been proposed as possible co-facilitators, but Bongo does not seem to have the confidence of RCD-Goma. "Francophone African countries are frustrated as the entire peace process is taking place within the SADC and they want to invest more in the process", a West-African diplomat told IRIN. The outcome of this dialogue is still uncertain, as the rebels are unlikely to be accepted by Kinshasa residents nor by all of the regional sponsors. Sources told IRIN that Jean-Pierre Bemba (FLC), supported by Uganda, did not seem to have Angola’s confidence and that RCD-Goma might have to pay the price for its ties with Rwanda. However, the latter could distance itself from the rebels in a near future, the sources added. The attitude of the international community will also be a key factor. "It must urgently force the parties to the conflict to talk and negotiate seriously within the principles envisaged in the Lusaka accord ", Fabienne Hara (ICG) said. It will also have to ensure that MONUC deploys, and that a plan to disarm, demobilise and reintegrate the different militias is put into place. Finally, as soon as peace returns it will have organise a regional conference on security and be ready with a project to revitalise DRC’s institutions.