Influx of Afghan refugees feared

Thousands of Afghans are said to be on their way out of their homeland, fleeing in fear of possible retaliation by the US for the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. "There is going to be a massive exodus of Afghans, but there are not many safe countries they can run to, creating the worst refugee situation in human history," the chairman of the department of defence and strategic studies at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, Rifat Hussain, told IRIN on Monday. The US's main suspect is the Saudi dissident, Usama bin Ladin, who has been hiding in Afghanistan under the Taliban regime since 1996; his whereabouts, however, are yet to be confirmed. Bin Ladin is also accused of masterminding the bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. The US then retaliated by launching missile attacks on Afghanistan. The US government has warned that it will hunt down the terrorists behind the 11 September attacks. According to Hussain, the humanitarian effects of military action against Afghanistan would "completely destroy" a nation already ravaged by 20 years of fighting and the worst drought in decades. "There will be an unmitigated disaster should military action be taken against Afghanistan," Hussain said. "People are completely impoverished in the country, and all relief work has come to an end. What hope do these people have of surviving?" About 900,000 Afghans had been internally displaced by the ongoing drought, Hussain said. Although many people were too poor to afford to travel out of Afghanistan, he estimated that the number of people fleeing could reach one million out of a population of 25 million. Hussain's comments on the flow of refugees was backed by an EU representative in Pakistan. "We will see a major influx of refugees into Pakistan, and it is important for the authorities to support them, otherwise it could have a negative impact on the whole country," the ambassador of a European country in Islamabad told IRIN on Monday. On the question of how Afghans would cope with limited assistance from the UN and other aid agencies, which have now pulled foreign staff out of Afghanistan, the EU representative said: "There was no alternative but for them to pull out. However, the absence of humanitarian assistance will have a long-term negative impact." UNHCR officials in Pakistan said under the present circumstances they would expect an increasing influx of refugees from Afghanistan into neighbouring countries. Meanwhile, Pakistan has announced it is officially closing its border Afghanistan and is not allowing any Afghans to enter the country unless they have official documentation; Pakistan will not support illegal refugees regardless of their circumstances. Eyewitnesses said some had been lucky to cross into Pakistan over the weekend by whatever means they had. Meanwhile Afghans in Pakistan have been returning home to help their families flee. Having just returned from the Afghan capital, Kabul, and now back in Peshawar, the capital of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, Ali Ahmad told IRIN he had gone back to Afghanistan to rescue his family after hearing that they could be in danger. "The situation in Kabul and most of the country is highly tense. People are listening intently to their radios, and they are also gearing up to leave the city," he said. Ahmad went on to say that people with passports or Afghan refugee travel permits were leaving immediately, as they had no problem in crossing the borders. Those without documents were forced to cross illegally, mainly by bribing officials - a common practice at the border - but at a higher price than usual. "The guards used to demand US $1.50 as a bribe to allow someone to cross without documents, but now they are asking for up to $15," Ahmad alleged. Some Afghans fear they will not see family members again. Muhammad Na'im, who had also just arrived in Peshawar from Kabul, told IRIN: "The war has split most Afghan families into two. Now many people living outside Afghanistan want their family members to unite." Na'im asserted that the recent death of Afghan opposition commander, Ahmad Shah Mas'ud, had added to the uncertainty. The financial impact of possible retaliation against Afghanistan has also hit hard. The situation has forced an already weak Afghan currency to take a nose dive. "Now 1,120 afghanis are exchanged for one Pakistani rupee. A few days earlier it was 1,050 afghanis, leaving Afghans with poor purchasing power," an Afghan money dealer in Peshawar said. Abdul Hadi, another Afghan returnee, told IRIN that people were trying to make money wherever they could, prompting a 100 percent increase in the transport fare from Kabul to Peshawar. "Earlier they charged 200 Pakistani rupees, but now the passengers from Kabul have to pay 500, or in some cases even higher," he said. With a population of 2.5 million Afghan refugees, Iran announced over the weekend that it too was closing its border with Afghanistan. "As far as we know, there is not a huge flow of refugees yet, but if the situation gets worse, then we could expect more refugees to cross the border," Mohamad Nouri, a UNHCR spokesman in Tehran told IRIN. Nouri added that, once inside Iran, refugees were likely to stay in border provinces for a few days before moving off to other cities in search of food and work. "We are calling on Iranian NGOs to help these refugees who have crossed over," he said, adding that the UN was also ready to help the refugees, most of whom had brought very few belongings with them.