Humanitarian workers warn of precarious situation

The countries bordering are currently bracing themselves for a new flow of Afghan refugees, but aid workers told IRIN on Friday that any large influx into the flood plains along the Afghan/Tajik border could create a "very serious situation." The UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) said on Thursday that it anticipated that up to 50,000 Afghans could flee to Tajikistan to escape possible US reprisals against the prime suspect in the 11 September terrorist attacks on the US, Saudi-born dissident Osama bin Laden, and the ruling Taliban Islamic Movement of Afghanistan, which has given him shelter. In what UNHCR calls "the worst case scenario", a further million Afghan refugees could flee into Pakistan and as many as 400,000 into Iran. "Such an increase of Afghans in Tajikistan would stretch the already meagre resources they have," said Jane Cockerell, a logistician and administrator for the British health NGO Merlin, based in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe. So far, only a few new arrivals have been reported in the border areas with Tajikistan, and it continues to keep its borders closed. Some 10,000 Afghans, however, continue to be stranded along the border area of the Pyandzh river, following fierce fighting between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance opposition forces last October, when hundreds of thousands of people were displaced in Afghanistan's northeastern Takhar and Badakhshan provinces. Officials at Merlin fear that the intensity of recent fighting reported in northern Afghanistan could again lead to thousands of displaced Afghans heading towards the Tajik border. Merlin has 60 staff members working in the border area, providing health care and distributing relief supplies. It and other relief agencies are making contingency plans for a possible influx of Afghan refugees to Tajikistan, and pre-positioning supplies to allow for an early response, but also weighing up the possibility of moving into northern Afghanistan to work with the displaced there if the security situation allows. According to Merlin's Paul Handley, there had been no recent deterioration in the situation of the displaced people along the Pyandzh river, but malaria, diarrhoea and dysentery were serious concerns. Shelter would also become a major issue if the Afghans remained in Pyandzh through the winter, he added. "They are short of clothing and blankets, and some are living in very basic reed structures they made from materials found lying around when they arrived." Tajikistan, whose own stability is fragile after years of civil war, has said it cannot not afford to host any Afghan refugees. President Imomali Rakhmonov recently said his country could ill afford the penetration of a single one "because there could be emissaries of different international terrorist organisations among them." Apart from the potential political implications, the humanitarian situation in Tajikistan is itself very serious, with up to one million lives at risk in the coming winter, according to relief workers. Matthew Kahane, UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Tajikistan, said the country suffered the worst drought in 75 years last year, and this had affected 1.2 million people in a population of 6.2 million. Families had already been forced to sell many of their valuable possessions. "Tajikistan faces a serious food deficit for the second year in a row as a consequence of unfavourable climatic conditions," according to a joint FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment. And the drought has had "a devastating effect" on public health, nutrition, water and the environment, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). Women and children in the most affected areas, including Khatlon and Sogd oblasts (areas), were especially hard-hit and vulnerable to water-related disease such as typhoid, diarrhoea and malaria - which worsened the impact of malnutrition and reduced immunity to other diseases, the agency added. "We believe the coping capacity of households, no longer exists and that starvation is a very real possibility," Kahane stated.