HIV/AIDS figures stabilise

For the first time, there are signs that new HIV/AIDS infections may have stabilised in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, UNAIDS said in its annual epidemic update released on Tuesday. New infections in 2000 totalled an estimated 3.8 million compared with 4 million in 1999, the ‘AIDS Epidemic Update: December 2000’ revealed. Globally there are 36.1 million people living with HIV/AIDS, 25.3 million of these people are in Africa. UNAIDS said the slight fall in infections was probably a result of two factors. “On the one hand, the epidemic in many countries has gone on for so long that it has already affected many people in the sexually active population leaving a smaller pool of people still able to acquire the infection. At the same time successful prevention programmes in a handful of African countries, notably Uganda, have reduced national infection rates and contributed to the regional downturn,” the report said. National HIV prevalence rates continue to vary widely between countries. They range from under 2 percent of the adult population in some West African countries to around 20 percent or more in southern Africa, the report noted. Infection rates in young women are far higher than in young men. Among young people in their early 20’s, the rates were three times higher in women. There are an estimated 12 women living with HIV/AIDS for every 10 men in sub-Saharan Africa. One of the fastest growing epidemics on the continent has been in South Africa. According to UNAIDS nearly 20 percent of adults are HIV positive, with one in four South African women between the ages of 20-29 infected with the virus. The report said more than one in four adults living in Zambian cities were HIV-positive, and more than one in seven Zambian adults in rural areas. However, the percentage of pregnant girls aged 15-19 infected with HIV in Lusaka had dropped by almost half in the last six years. Deaths increasing Although overall infection rates may have stabilised, people infected years ago are succumbing to HIV-related illnesses. HIV/AIDS mortality rates across the continent are increasing, with 2.4 million people dying from HIV/AIDS related illnesses, compared with 2.3 million in 1999. One of the greatest challenges, according to UNAIDS, is bringing health care and support to an increased number of people with HIV-related illnesses. In Zambia a study conducted in one hospital showed that HIV/AIDS related deaths among health care workers increased 13-fold over the 10 year period from 1980-1990. Africa has buried three-quarters of the more than 20 million people world-wide who have died from HIV/AIDS since the epidemic began. Counting the costs It is estimated that US $1.5 billion is needed for prevention efforts and to care for those already infected. In his address at the launch of the report in Berlin, Dr Peter Piot, Executive Director of UNAIDS said that a “relatively modest” contribution from developed nations could reduce “substantially” the catastrophic impact of HIV/AIDS. “US $3 billion would so something to turn this situation around. This is a fraction of the US $52 billion spent annually in the US on obesity,” Piot said. AIDS mainly affects people in the most productive age groups, 15-49. Loss of skilled workers harms the development prospects of society, including individual households and vital sectors such as education, transport, and agriculture. Studies on the economic impact have estimated that in South Africa the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 17 percent lower in 2010 than it would have been without HIV/AIDS. An estimated US $22 billion will be wiped from the economy. The study also projects that at the start of the next decade, households will be spending more on caring for AIDS patients and orphans and on average will have 13 percent less disposable income per person. HIV/AIDS is also likely to exacerbate the severe shortage of qualified men and women in most sectors in the economy. Studies have also shown that in Botswana HIV/AIDS will slice 20 percent off the government budget and reduce income for the poorest by 13 percent. By 2025 the economy will be a dramatic 31 percent smaller than it would have been. Spending on health care is likely to increase dramatically, with some experts predicting a tripling over the next 10 years. The UNAIDS report can be found at: http://www.unaids.org/wac/2000/wad00/files/WAD_epidemic_report.htm