IRIN Interview with Matthew Kahane, UN Humanitarian

Tajikistan remains one of the least developed countries in the world and the poorest in the Central Asia region with some 85 percent of the population living below the poverty line. A five-year long civil war [1992-1997] devastated the country's fragile economy, still ailing from the collapse of the Soviet Union. A peace agreement between the government and opposition groups was signed in 1997, but implementation has progressed slowly. A severe drought last year further compounded the socioeconomic situation. This week UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Tajikistan Matthew Kahane discussed with IRIN the challenges of the year ahead. Q What is the outlook for Tajikistan in the coming year? A A number of factors have to be taken into account in looking at Tajikistan's progress in the next year. The most important factor is going to be doing something serious about creating job opportunities and livelihoods in order to get some of the 85 percent of the population that is currently living under the poverty line out of poverty. By this stage, 10 years after the break-up of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan should really be beginning to tackle some economic policy issues. Traditionally, we have thought the ones of greatest effect on individuals are agriculture and management of water. Only 7 percent of the area of the country is arable land, and some 93 percent is mountainous. With a population of 6 million people, and growing, much more emphasis needs to be placed on productivity and the value needs to go back to the primary producer. That is largely not happening now. Under the Soviet Union there was a tendency to exploit natural resources. There was no real understanding of economic sustainability. Unless real progress is made on getting jobs and livelihoods, then there is no way of helping people out of poverty or increasing their disposable income. We have had a civil war which killed 1 percent and displaced 10 percent [of the population]. The country is divided up and cut off by mountains. The Karategin Valley is marked out geographically and politically. What we expect after civil war is that the country becomes unified again and recognises the authority of central government. Some of us believe that security is being achieved in a fashion that is exclusionary - excluding those who voted for the opposition. The authorities are not making enough effort to be inclusionary. Q Tajikistan suffered a severe drought last year, and agricultural return as a result was poor. What is the outlook for the coming months? A The drought last year was severe. In meteorological terms, last year was the driest year for three-quarters of a century. However, given the amount of water that comes from Tajikistan, this meteorological drought should not have had any significant effect on people if water management systems were in place. The overall management of water in general is an extremely important issue, starting with what is the real economic benefit of alternative uses of water. For example, is growing cotton a good use of water? Is it economically sustainable? The government's response has been to hope the international community will do something about it. We have had little rain, and even less snow. We are beginning to get very worried. We are going to have the same kind of drought conditions in 2001 as in 2000, with far less coping capacity than there was. Any coping capacity was used up this year. Q Does Tajikistan need humanitarian assistance or development assistance? A Tajikistan needs both. It certainly needs long-term development assistance. There is a movement towards this with the production of an Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy paper. This creates some fundamental policy issues on land-use rights, privatisation of state industry [and] reform of law-enforcement agencies. It is relatively ambitious, but there is a real desire to try and make it happen with the support of the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the IMF. It's a very important beginning. Tajikistan surprised some of its neighbours by being further down the path in implementing this strategy. It covers a wide area - skills creation, job skills, life skills, changing the purpose and the function of a professional training system. Humanitarian assistance certainly continues to be needed with the aim of saving lives. But it needs to be done in a way which is directed at development issues, not simply handouts; it needs to be chanelled effectively and efficiently. Q What changes have you seen since the implementation of the peace process? A Substantial changes in normal security in the capital, Dushanbe. There are people on the streets now. There is not the same level of concern, the same level of unexplained deaths, or political murders that there were in the first half of last year. There has been a huge improvement in the sense of personal security. Q Regional instability threatens to further destabilise Tajikistan. What do you see happening in the coming months? A Relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are tense. Uzbekistan has closed its border and insisted that Tajiks apply and pay for visas. The borders have been mined. In effect, there is an Uzbek blockade of Tajikistan. Few people can travel, transportation of goods is difficult, there are no direct flights to Tashkent. Tension is exacerbated by the whereabouts of Juma Namangani, leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which has undertaken a number of terrorist actions inside Uzbekistan in an attempt to overthrow President Karimov. There is a lot of discontent within Uzbekistan. This has a destabilising effect on Tajikistan. There is no sense of willingness to talk, to exchange different points of view. The Fergana Valley is another cause of tension. It is an area that could be rich and productive, but it is being strangled by the borders and by the economic policies of the neighbouring governments. This creates all sorts of inefficiencies and constraints. Are these people going to uprise and overthrow Uzbekistan? I don't see that happening. Is Tajikistan going to overthrow Uzbekistan? The answer is no. However, I do believe the UN needs to keep its eye on these issues. Some conflict prevention is possible. One such example that has been actioned is a cross-border water programme with Kyrgyzstan, a small scale water project with Swiss funding, and it is proving to be very useful. I have no belief that intervention on the political aspects of the Fergana Valley is going to amount to anything. If the IMU didn't continue to enjoy substantial support from the Taliban and run incursions over the spring into Uzbekistan, then, yes, they could probably embarrass Uzbekistan and create some confusion. So far, there is no evidence of a population of the Fergana Valley rising up in support of the IMU. Sure, they are severely repressed, but even so, that repression could be broken. Q Is Tajikistan going to control drugs? A It has been established that between 30 [and] 50 percent of the entire economic activity of Tajikistan is linked to drugs with Afghanistan. The World Bank estimates 30 percent, the Russian embassy 50 percent. The drug problem can only be controlled when the Taliban movement in Afghanistan stops producing narcotics. The UN is working on programmes with the Russian Border Forces and the Drug Control Agency (DCA) of Tajikistan to fight drug trafficking. One point to take into account is that if the Taliban's efforts to stem the flow of drugs are successful, we will see a downward spiral in the Tajik economy. Going back to a dependence on agriculture, water resources and skills - it's a very hard sell. Tajikistan has some factories that are viable - fruit canneries and juice-making plants that might do OK if they were rehabilitated. Why aren't these folk investing their money in it? Because folk make their money on drugs. I don't know if there is any country in the world where foreign investment without domestic investment has amounted to anything. Q What is required if Tajikistan is to recover and become economically stable? A First, the government needs to focus on internal political stability. If that can be achieved, then other challenges follow. There must be a solution to the issue of Afghanistan, leading to a massive reduction in the production and export of drugs in and from Afghanistan. Second, the implementation of the poverty reduction strategy and similar policies that focus on breaking the poverty cycle. Just as important, Tajikistan needs very significant levels of international assistance: humanitarian, reconstruction and development assistance for what was the poorest of the Soviet republics and the one which is furthest from the modernising influences of the outside world. That's quite a challenge.