IRIN Interview with Ivo Petrov, Representative of the Secretary-General for Tajikistan

Question: What is the role of UNTOP in Tajikistan? Answer: The United Nations Tajikistan Office of Peace Building (UNTOP) was created in mid-2000 as successor to the United Nations Military Observers in Tajikistan (UNMOT), which was a peacekeeping operation. UNMOT was terminated by the Security Council in May 2000 upon completion of its mandate, and a new office was established by the Secretary-General to provide the political framework for the UN agencies in Tajikistan. The office would also assist the UN Resident Coordinator in attracting international assistance for programmes such as job creation for former combatants, good governance and improving democracy. The mission of observers for Tajikistan was instrumental in the implementation of the peace agreement signed between the government and the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) in 1997. The main elements were implemented and the mission's mandate fulfilled. However, a great number of tasks remained for the international community to take up, for example the General Agreement for Peace and National Reconciliation. Monitoring of how this process had been performed by the Tajiks was necessary. The root causes of the conflict in Tajikistan were not addressed during the implementation of the peace agreement. Such a difficult neighbour as Afghanistan causes concern for the stability of the country. Through our liaison with the government, UNTOP is trying to build on the positive elements implemented during the peace agreement, such as the further functioning of a permanent parliament of the country [and] to assist in the creation of civil society in this country. Q. What is needed for Tajikistan to stabilise economically and politically? A. After completion of one transitional period - war to peace – completed in May of last year, a new transitional period has begun in Tajikistan that will last several years. It is a transition to an improved stability based on national reconciliation. This is what the country now needs. It is a tremendous task before the government. Several years leading] from a centralised economy to a market economy were lost to war. Tajikistan is now in the position where other former Soviet countries were approximately six years ago. Tajikistan has established a more or less functioning pluralist system. The elections Parliamentary elections in March 2000] were severely criticised, but at least they have shown that despite the short time since the civil war, that warring parties could participate without violence. That's a big achievement. Now government restructuring is taking place. Tajikistan has more ministers and committees than other countries in this region. This structure was artificially created to find jobs for personalities. Right now the biggest political challenge facing Tajikistan is its economic situation. Economically, the country is in a dire state and is in desperate need of improvement. The alleviation of poverty is critical; the majority of people live under very poor conditions. For such a big task the country should allocate a lot of funds, but Tajikistan simply has no funds for poverty alleviation. International assistance is needed, both government and private. Q. What changes have you witnessed since the implementation of the peace process? A. Tajikistan has seen tremendous changes - former adversaries sitting in government together. Through the 30 percent quota devoted to the opposition, a lot of former commanders of the UTO are in political positions. The former factions of the UTO - many have been integrated into the official power structures of the country, while others have joined civilian life. Many Tajik refugees have returned home. There has been a significant repatriation from neighbouring countries. The security situation has improved: you don't see armed people on the streets or camouflage uniforms. City life is not marked by shooting like it was one year ago, every night. Q. The Tajik government is in a very fragile state. Is it going to get through this transitional period? A. The government will get through because President Rahmonov, during the peace process negotiations, managed to learn how to find a compromise. This was his asset, and in fact the government managed better than expected in this situation. Now it is a more difficult period, because at that time many people accepted the suffering in the belief that better days were ahead. The problem is that those better days are not yet here. The government would be helped in its recovery if it was not faced with such a major threat - such as regional instability. Tajikistan is a totally landlocked country; we have a danger of being cut off from the outside world. Q. Regional instability is on the rise and relations with Uzbekistan are at an all-time low. Many say 2001 could be a decisive year in terms of regional instability. What is your view? A. The security situation in the country compared to 18 months ago is much better. Control over the regions is more in the hands of the government. Problems are emerging in the eastern part of the Karategin Valley, especially Tavildara, where fighters of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) are presiding on Tajik soil. According to previous decisions during the implementation of the peace agreement, these people had to leave Tajikistan, but they continued to return. A potential threat remains in the declaration of jihad [holy war] against Uzbekistan. Tajikistan - as a neighbouring country [and] a partner of Uzbekistan - sees the necessity of getting these people out of its territory. This will not be easy. UNTOP is following the developments closely and how they affect the achievements of the peace process. However, we are not involved in any negotiations or mediations. It is clear that religious extremism and the extremists from Uzbekistan will try again to give a sign of their existence in 2001 as they have done in 1999/2000. It depends on developments in Afghanistan - will the northern alliance take back some of its lost positions? Q. Is Tajikistan going to make progress in controlling the trafficking of drugs from Afghanistan? A. The movement of drugs from Afghanistan into Tajikistan is destabilising, because it continues the criminalisation of the Tajik economy. Yes, there are amounts of narcotics that remain here and are consumed in Tajikistan. But most important is the trafficking of narcotics. It is well organised and the dirty money is producing dirty business. Despite the Taliban's ban on opium production, stockpiles remain high, so I don't think we will see a reduction in drug trafficking in the coming months. Q. What is the future of the UN's political role in Tajikistan? A. The future of UNTOP depends on developments in the region. The political presence will not remain in Tajikistan open-ended. However, as long as there are challenges to the stability of the country, then we have to take these into account and continue to assist Tajikistan in this difficult situation. Q. What are the immediate challenges facing Tajikistan in the coming year? A. Many challenges lie ahead. An improvement in the country's economic situation would have a huge impact on the Tajik people and on the attitude of the government. Second, the situation of Afghanistan and whether the Taliban will reach across the whole extent of the Tajik border. Thirdly, international terrorism - will it continue to use Tajikistan as a transit to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan? We have yet to see.