Potential Gaza ceasefire, Rafah invasion hang in the balance

The Palestinian political and militant group Hamas is soon expected to respond to a proposal for a 40-day ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The potential agreement, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US, would see Hamas release 33 of the remaining hostages it took during its deadly 7 October raid into Israel last year in exchange for a pause in hostilities and the release of thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli jails.

If the deal falls through, Israel says it will launch its long-threatened invasion of Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza and the only part of the enclave Israeli troops have yet to invade. In the meantime, Israel has continued to bomb Rafah, killing at least 22 people on 29 April.

Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups are thought to be holding around 133 hostages after releasing over 100 as part of a deal for a pause in fighting last November. Some of the remaining hostages are believed to have died.

Aid groups warn that an Israeli invasion of Rafah would be catastrophic. The city – previously home to around 300,000 – is now hosting around 1.5 million people. Almost 75% of Gaza’s population has been displaced by Israel’s military campaign. Rafah is also the main gateway for the humanitarian aid that has been allowed to enter the enclave. “We live in constant fear, day and night, of what our fate will be if this invasion occurs,” Maisaa Abu Samaan, a 35-year-old Palestinian mother of six, told us recently.

Abu Samaan was one of five Palestinian in Rafah we spoke to to understand what they fear the most about the potential Israeli invasion, the struggles they face to find food, and what their daily lives are like. Read our conversations with them in our latest report from Gaza: ‘If we survive’: Palestinians in Rafah on fears of an imminent Israeli invasion