Concerns over earthquake preparedness

Concerns have been raised over Kyrgyzstan’s ability to deal with the aftermath of an earthquake following four quakes in the Central Asian state in the space of a month.

While the government and relief agencies have a plan to contain natural disasters, this unusual level of seismological activity has put the spotlight on Kyrgyzstan's ability to respond to emergencies, and bigger quakes are expected to follow. "The Ministry of Emergencies [MOE] has a plan at the national level and at the regional level to be ready for an earthquake or other natural disasters," Muratbek Koshoyev, UNDP disaster programme adviser in Kyrgyzstan, said from the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek. "I can't say it's ideal, but it has potential. On paper it exists. In reality, of course, there are problems in how to implement the plans to be effective."

The ministry's strategy is as effective as it can be, emergency officials say. "No-one is 100 percent ready for any emergency, but the ministry can basically do the job," said Alisher Tashmatov of the MOE press service. He points to the response to the four earthquakes that have struck since late December as evidence, saying that the ministry's teams reached the disaster zones quickly and began assisting those affected.

There have been no serious casualties from any of these earthquakes, but several thousand buildings - including houses, schools and medical facilities - have been damaged, and some totally destroyed. The series of earthquakes began on 26 December, measuring up to 5.9 on the Richter scale.

Tens of thousands of people were affected by the earthquakes, with thousands of them losing their homes. Kyrgyzstan is located in a seismically active part of Central Asia and overall there are some 3,000 tremors in the country annually, according to the ministry. In 2005 alone, there were some 30 tremors measuring over 3 on the Richter scale.

But emergency officials and seismology experts warn that a strong earthquake could hit the former Soviet republic at any time. "Strong earthquakes that could measure up to 7 to 8 on the Richter scale are anticipated in and around Kemin and Kochkor districts in the north, and in mountainous areas of the south, particularly Ferghana and Alai mountain ranges, including areas close to the Tajik or Chinese border," Abibila Pazylov, an MOE spokesman, told IRIN on Monday. The reason for such concern was a strong earthquake in Kemin a century ago. "Seismologists say that such tremors are highly likely to reoccur every 100 years. The seismology institute is monitoring the seismic activity and reporting to us any new developments accordingly," Pazylov said.

Kyrgyzstan's disaster response programme faces many challenges, among them the country's rugged terrain. With some 94 percent of the land mountainous, it can take rescue teams up to 12 hours to reach the remotest areas. Lack of equipment can also hinder the rescue process. There is only one mobile crisis communications centre for the whole country; when several earthquakes strike in different areas the shortage is felt, particularly since the telephone network is not always reliable.

"There are problems in communication. Kyrgyzstan does not have a well-developed system across the republic," says Koshoyev. "Sometimes you have no phone connection with the [local administration] head at the lowest level." What Kyrgyzstan really needs, argues Koshoyev, is a focus on three factors which can save lives when an earthquake strikes: careful planning when selecting areas for residential buildings to avoid the riskiest zones, strict building codes to ensure earthquake-resistant construction, and effective insurance policies to mitigate the effects of destruction.

There is also a need to raise public awareness. While the MOE regularly visits schools and conducts earthquake training seminars, and relief agencies such as the Red Crescent distribute leaflets giving life-saving tips, there is no comprehensive nationwide awareness campaign. With seismologists warning that a major quake might strike at any time, Kyrgyzstan needs an effective disaster response plan in place. "Almost all Kyrgyz territory may experience a magnitude 8 earthquake. There is nothing we can do [about it]. We live in a mountainous country," Kanat Abdrahmanov, director of Kyrgyzstan's Seismology Institute, said in an interview to the local www.24.kg news website on 12 January.

While the country clearly has a considered strategy, there are some pressing problems - communications, equipment, construction and land planning, and public awareness - which need to be addressed in order to minimise casualties if a powerful earthquake strikes.

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