Iraq gears up for vote on new constitution opposed by Sunnis

Iraq votes in a referendum on Saturday whether to approve or reject a new constitution, but Islamic insurgents have vowed to disrupt the ballot and the country’s disaffected Sunni minority is split over whether or not to take part. Sunni Muslims account for 15 to 20 percent of Iraq’s 26 million population and dominated politics and government under deposed President Sadam Hussein and are overwhelmingly opposed to the US-backed government in Baghdad. Most Sunnis fear they will be sidelined by the new constitution, which gives more power and influence to the Shia majority in the south and the Kurdish population in the north. The Islamist insurgency against the US-led military forces in Iraq draws most of its support from the Sunni community, which largely abstained from voting in parliamentary elections in January. Diplomats are worried that the increasing alienation of Sunnis from Iraq’s US-backed transition towards democracy could give new strength to the insurgency and tear the country apart. Amr Moussa, the Secretary-General of the Arab League, told the BBC on Saturday that Iraq was on the verge of civil war. “The situation is so tense…a civil war could erupt at any moment, although some people would say it is already there,” the Cairo-based diplomat said. With only a few days to go before the 15 October referendum, Sunni leaders remained split over whether to boycott the poll or participate and vote ‘no.’ They emerged from a meeting in a Baghdad mosque on Saturday still divided on the issue. “We do not ask the Iraqi people to boycott or not,” said Harith al-Dhari, the head of the Muslim Clerics’ Association told Reuters as he emerged from the meeting. But he stressed; “We ask them to do everything they legitimately can to reject the draft of the constitution.” Tampering with the rules Despite their minority status in Iraq as a whole, the Sunnis could in theory block adoption of the new constitution by voting massively against it in the three provinces of the country where they form the majority. These are Anbar in the west, where US forces launched a pre-referendum offensive against insurgent forces earlier this month, and Salaheddin and Nineveh in northern Iraq. The rules of the referendum state that the new constitution will be rejected if it is defeated by a two thirds majority in just three of the country’s 18 provinces. However, Iraq’s Shia-dominated parliament incensed Sunnis at the last moment by trying to make it more difficult for them to defeat the constitution. An amendment to the referendum law on 2 October insisted that two thirds of the registered electorate in three provinces would have to vote ‘no,’ rather than two thirds of those who actually voted. Following a protest by the United Nations, parliament repealed this amendment three days later, but the episode did nothing to build Sunni confidence in Iraq’s fledgling democracy. Nearly 15 million Iraqis are eligible to vote in the referendum which will take place amid tight security to prevent insurgent attacks on polling stations and the intimidation of voters. Thousands of police will be on the streets, vehicle movements will be restricted and one local television station reported that a curfew would be imposed 24 hours before the poll to prevent people moving outside their homes at night The constitution was drafted by a 55-member committee representing all of Iraq’s sectarian and ethnic groups. It debated the draft constitution for most of the summer before producing a final document on 28 August. However, the final wording of the constitution was rejected by all 15 Sunni members of the drafting committee. They disagreed above all with its adoption of a federal government for Iraq, this gives the Kurds and the Shias stronger powers over Iraq’s two main oil-producing regions in the north and south of the country. They also feared that derogatory references in the constitution to the Ba’ath Party, which held power under Sadam Hussein, would lead to a purge of Sunnis in positions of authority in public life. Preparing the vote The referendum will be supervised by the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq, which in recent weeks has been distributing five million copies of the proposed new constitution to prospective voters. “We have put all our efforts to prepare for the first democratic referendum in Iraq,” said commission spokesman Farid Ayar. “The insecurity in Iraq sometimes delayed our work but we are positive that we will finish everything within the coming days,” he added. With the support of the United Nations, the electoral commission, has trained more than 100,000 people to staff polling stations across the country. It has also carried out a publicity campaign through leaflets distributed to homes and messages broadcast on radio and television, urging people to vote. “We are working hard to prevent mistakes or doubts about the transparency of our work in the referendum day,” Ayar said. Iraq’s political parties have also been given the right to distribute leaflets and to publicise their views about the referendum in radio and television advertisements. The poll will be monitored by nearly 500 accredited international observers.