Gov't warns of pending offensive should LRA talks collapse

The Ugandan government is certain of military success against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) should the rebel group prove to be less serious about dialogue, the defence minister said. "Just in case they are not that serious, the UPDF [Uganda People's Defence Force] will continue its offensive," Amama Mbabazi, Uganda's Minister of Defence, told parliament in a statement on Monday evening. "We are certain of victory. The current effort at peaceful resolution, mainly initiated by some LRA rebel commanders, has been welcome by [the] government." The minister, who depicted a picture of relative peace in the country, was giving the general state of security in the East African country, whose northern region has been devastated by an 18-year war between the government and the LRA. "The continued effectiveness of the UPDF has degraded the operational capacity of the LRA in terms of the number of combatants killed, surrendered and captured. The remaining number of LRA combatants have suffered a break down in command and control, lack food and drugs [and are] low on arms and ammunition," Mbabazi said, adding that this had effectively reduced the capacity of the rebels to commit atrocities against the civilian population. Emphasizing the government's conviction that the LRA had been decimated, Mbabazi said the rebel group was estimated to have 300 to 400 active fighters remaining. In the 13 months from January 2004, the UPDF had killed 2,077 LRA rebels, captured 448 and recovered 1,402 rifles. Meanwhile 3,064 abducted children had been rescued, while 1,030 LRA officers and men had defected to the UPDF. The head of the government's team to the peace talks, internal affairs minister, Ruhakana Rugunda, told IRIN that the peace process was still on course and the government was satisfied with the progress made so far. However, he declined to state when the two sides were likely to sign the permanent ceasefire agreement that has, for several months, been the subject of intense negotiations. Mbabazi defended the government's refusal to extend the November to December ceasefire, accusing the rebels of using it instead "to gain some military advantage by retrieving their hidden ammunition caches, carrying out ambushes for food and drugs, and carrying out abductions and generally re-organising". "When Kony [LRA leader] showed that he was not interested in peace talks, the ceasefire ended and the UPDF resumed its operations and is now gaining momentum," he added. The minister told of the existence of a dormant rebel group, the People's Redemption Army (PRA), which the government alleges is based in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. He said many collaborators had been arrested, adding that the rebel group was purchasing arms through southern Sudan. The conflict in northern Uganda has seen tens of thousands killed and up to 20,000 children abducted to become soldiers or sex slaves of the LRA commanders. An estimated 1.6 million people have been displaced from their homes by the war.