Review of 2004

A lack of democratic reforms and continued human rights abuses dominated the year in Uzbekistan, Central Asia's most populous state. Observers noted that very little progress, if any, had been made in introducing political and economic reforms in the former Soviet republic. In April, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) significantly reduced the level of public-sector loans to the country, a year after calling for political and economic reforms. The bank said that there had been very limited movement on these issues and it was no longer able to conduct business as usual. "The key point we made was that we found progress to be very limited," Jeff Hiday, head of media relations for the EBRD, told IRIN from the bank's headquarters in London. According to the EBRD, Tashkent had not registered any opposition political parties, government control over media remained and the harassment of journalists expressing independent views continued. Local non-government organisations (NGOs) working on the rule of law and human rights were denied registration. In a sign that there would be no replication of Georgia's "rose" revolution in Uzbekistan, April saw authorities shut down the Uzbek branch of the Soros Fund, a group promoting a more open society in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, accusing it of undermining Tashkent's official policies. The move coincided with the pressure on other international NGOs operating in the country and further control over the work of local NGOs, particularly those receiving assistance from abroad. "It is hard to say very much positive [about developments in 2004]. What we saw in Uzbekistan in 2004 was sort of a continuation of gradual trend of economic decline, increasing depression and repression of freedom," Michael Hall, an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), told IRIN from the Tajik capital, Dushanbe. Although new Uzbek legislation designed to stop torture was on the statute this year, torture persisted in prisons and places of detention, human nrights activists said. An action plan on torture was adopted, but it had not yet been published and contained no clear monitoring mechanism, EBRD said. The clampdown on opposition groups and independent Muslims continued unabated, with an estimated 4,500 religious and political prisoners remaining in jail. The tight control over private businesses and independent farms, along with the closure of the borders with neighbouring states leading to diminishing trade - the only means of survival for thousands of Uzbek as many factories and plants remained closed - further lessened economic opportunities. In November, growing dissent was given voice in street protests, with hundreds of traders in the densely populated Ferghana Valley unhappy at the government's decree to introduce tougher control in the bazaars. "Things are getting worse year by year. The authorities are tightening their grip on people's throats. It cannot continue this way," a former trader told IRIN in the eastern Uzbek city of Andijan. Some analysts said these factors and a lack of legal channels for people to express their grievances prompted a spate of violence in the country in May and July, when suicide bombers - the first ever in the region - targeted law-enforcement offices and US and Israeli embassies. The attacks left more than 50 people dead, mainly militants and law-enforcement officials, and dozens injured. President Islam Karimov's government did not hesitate to blame the banned Hizbut Tahrir party for the attacks. The London-based party, which claims it is non-violent, denied the charges. The parliamentary elections in December fell far short of international standards, some foreign observers said. The two main opposition parties, Erk and Birlik, were not registered and only pro-government parties contested the polls. "The parliamentary elections held in December 2004 were quite obviously very un-free and very unfair. There is not much doubt about that and it's just a sign that there has been no improvement, no progress on the political front at all in Uzbekistan," Hall said. Another issue of growing concern is HIV/AIDS. While Uzbekistan, like other Central Asian republics, has a low prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS, the number of infected people continues to grow, and by the end of 2004 there were officially more than 4,000 registered cases, according to the Uzbek HIV/AIDS centre. However, UNAIDS experts estimate that the real number of the HIV-positive people in the country could be more than 30,000. The total population of Uzbekistan is some 26 million. Uzbekistan "hosts one of the youngest epidemics in the world", developing swiftly through commercial sex, a report by UNAIDS and the World Health Organisation in December said. Already, commercial sex appears to be playing a large role. The proportion of women among people living with the virus has grown annually from just over 12 percent in 2001 to almost 18 percent in 2003. THE YEAR AHEAD Under current circumstances, little prospects for improvement are expected in the country in the year to come. "If the authorities continue their repressive policy in the same way, one day we will have massive disturbances and even a revolution in Uzbekistan as the people's patience can run out," a local resident, formerly an engineer and now a taxi driver, told IRIN in the eastern province of Ferghana. "One very significant thing was the disturbances in the Ferghana Valley in November, particularly in Kokand but also in Margelan, Andijan and other cities. What is happening there seems to be a sign that things might be reaching crisis point," Hall noted. "I am very concerned about the situation in Uzbekistan. If the trends that are going on there continue much longer there could very serious trouble and very serious unrest in the country. And there is a good possibility of violence," the ICG analyst added. Burdened with growing poverty, economic decline and environmental problems related to the Aral Sea ecological catastrophe, the Uzbek government has no other way than to start implementing economic and political reforms, analysts say. That would allow Tashkent to start attracting foreign capital and boost the economy, and thereby reduce unemployment and tackle poverty, local experts told IRIN, noting, however, that the process would require much effort given the bureaucracy and rampant corruption in government institutions.