Long-term impact of food crisis

Swazis struggling with the impact of drought this year will face an even tougher time next year, according to a UN crop assessment report. More than two-thirds of Swazis will be dependent on food assistance by March, while the rest of the population will be saddled with food price increases of around 25 percent, the Food and Agricultural Organisation/World Food Programme (WFP) crop assessment report predicted. Not only this year's drought, but also AIDS has impacted on food availability and prices. The epidemic is cutting a swathe through small landowner households, making them unable to fully cultivate their fields. The report, released this month, estimated that crop production in 2005 would be between 30 and 60 percent of a normal year's output. Because the Swaziland economy is agro-based, with supplementary industries such as canning and transportation dependant on crop production, a slackening in output will have a ripple effect throughout the economy. FAO and WFP forecast there will be 25 percent to 75 percent less employment opportunities. "In a normal year employment prospects are terrible," Jan Sithole, Secretary General of the Swaziland Federation of Trade Unions told IRIN. "Formal sector unemployment is already at 40 percent, and the informal economy cannot give a person a decent livelihood." The federation, which incorporates the Agricultural and Plantation Workers Union - Swaziland's largest labour union - has criticised the government's agricultural policy for encouraging cash crops like sugar cane instead of emphasising food production. It was a point raised in the FAO/WFP assessment as well. The government is also under pressure from the World Bank to concentrate resources on humanitarian efforts instead of expensive infrastructure schemes with uncertain returns, such as a new airport under construction in the eastern lowveld, where food shortages are most severe. Both the air carriers servicing Swaziland have said they are not interested in using the new facility. "The government will need to increase resources devoted to mitigation efforts," Ben Nsibandze, director of the National Disaster Relief Early Warning Unit told IRIN. An estimated 262,000 people will be dependant on food assistance by March 2005. "The mitigation efforts recommended by the [FAO/WFP] survey targets households considered especially vulnerable to the effects of food shortages," said Abboulaye Balde, the WFP country representative for Swaziland. Such households include those that have suffered diminished crop returns, have no family members employed and have no livestock; families with chronically ill members or which are headed by children or women; and families that have been forced to sell crucial assets like tools, or have taken children out of school in order to have funds to purchase food.