Country faces bleak food outlook

Although the WFP emergency food assistance programme targeting 1.13 million vulnerable Tajiks is scheduled to end in June with the arrival of the harvest, lack of precipitation this winter, the knock-on effect of last year's drought, and low donor interest, suggest the chances of even a partial agricultural recovery this year remains elusive. "The situation is very critical at the moment. People foresee another drought due to lack of rain and snow this year.," Laila Ahadi WFP food coordinator in the southern Khatlon province told IRIN. "Right now most people in Khatlon have no food stocks. Families have reduced the size and number of meals per day, and have been sticking to only bread and boiled water. As a result, the incidence of disease has increased, especially among women and children. Some people are beginning to panic, some men are moving to Russia to find work," she added. Concerns are high because many farmers were unable to cultivate last season due to a lack of wheat, seed and water. The drought reduced local wheat seed production which is insufficient to meet the annual requirement of about 66,000 mt. The government estimates that there is a shortage of 41,000 mt worth some US $50 million. This means that only a third of the country's seed requirement is available for planting, which means a disadvantaged start for Tajikistan farmers this year. Although some managed to borrow seed or sold their livestock to purchase seeds, the absence of winter snow also threatens another crop failure in 2001. WFP has managed support to over 9,000 of the poorest drought affected farmers by distributing seeds and wheat flour to enable them to start the cultivation under a WFP land lease programme launched in November. Although vital for those families targeted, a World Bank official once labelled this assistance as "ad hoc" in the context of 1.13 million people in dire need. Nevertheless, WFP Country Director, Bouchan Hadj-Chikh maintains that assistance is vital and described the situation as "serious". In the Khatlon district, the breadbasket of Tajikistan, WFP has only 1200 mt of wheat flour available which will be depleated by the end of January despite already distributing at a slower pace than planned. WFP was forced to borrow some food to cover the most poor for the beginning of winter and is expecting a food consignment to arrive at the end of February. The agency needs 126,000 mt to cover nine months from October 2000 through June 2001. "We may face a breakdown in our pipeline for several weeks," Hadj-Chikh maintained. "There is not enough food in the country to cover even the most needy. If food security doesn't improve we will be back to square one. Harvest is in July, so by May we should know our position," he added. Given such remarks, the immediate situation does not look positive andinternational interest in the region is low. The Head of IFRC in Tajikistan, Lotta Relander told IRIN that she was not optimistic for the future. "It looks like we will have to relaunch the appeal for next year. Unfortunately Tajikistan simply doesn't attract [donor] funding. In a few months the situation will be much worse. There will be more people dying I am sure, especially in the countryside. Unfortunately, there are many countries fighting for the same donors and our situation obviously doesn't appear dramatic enough."