Peace deal reached in Niger Delta, but will it hold?

Ethnic militia groups in the Niger Delta agreed a tentative peace deal with Nigeria's federal government at the end of last week. But political commentators and activists in the Delta said on Monday they were sceptical that it would provide anything more than a temporary respite to a battle which threatens the country's lifeblood oil industry. After three days of talks between government officials and two rival warlords in the Delta, Moujahid Dokubo-Asari and Ateke Tom, a deal was hammered out on Friday night to halt the violence which has plagued the area around the oil centre of Port Harcourt for several months. The situation came to a head at the beginning of last week when Dokubo-Asari's Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force, issued an ultimatum, warning oil companies to shut down their operations throughout the Niger Delta by 1 October or risk their employees becoming targets in a major new ofensive dubbed "Operation Locust Feast.". The threat caused panic in global oil markets as traders worried about disruption to the the flow of 2.5 million barrels of crude per day exported by Nigeria. Prices shot to record hights of over US$ 50 a barrel on fears the supplies from Africa's largest oil exporter would collapse. The turmoil prompted President Olusegun Obasanjo to invite Dokubo-Asari, a man the government has long dismissed as a mere gangster, for peace talks in the capital, Abuja Dokubo Asari admits tapping crude oil from pipelines to finance his activities. But he describes himself as a rebel fighting for a better deal for the Ijaw people, the largest ethnic group in the oil-rich Delta, whose inhabitants continue to suffer abject poverty despite the oil wealth under their feet. The government and the militia leaders eventually agreed that all hostilities would cease and all militias would be disarmed and disbanded. The accord also included a vague commitment to work for the development of the Niger Delta “under a just, free and equitable environment”. But many question marks remain. Firstly, the Nigerian government, whose troops have been pounding the NDPVF from the air and on the ground for the last month, did not actually sign the agreement. Instead the government cast itself as a neutral party that had brokered a deal between Dokubo-Asari and Tom's rival militias. This prompted an outburst from Dokubo-Asari during the negotiations, but in the end did not stop him signing the deal.

An armed Ijaw militant walks past the smoking ruins of houses following fighting with a rival gang

Secondly, analysts said, the NDPVF demands for greater autonomy for the Delta and a bigger share of oil revenues for its people were not directly addressed. Dokubo-Asari had called for Obasanjo to immediately convene a “Sovereign National Conference” to discuss ways of giving the eigh million Ijaws the right to self-determination as well as a share of the oil profits. But the final document was silent on these demands. “I’m okay with that because for the first time the government has agreed that we can campaign for resource control," Dokubo-Asari told IRIN. "We have agreed tentatively to disarm, but all the issues must be taken together, including the demands for resource control and self-determination.” Triumphant return to Delta The self-styled revolutionary made a triumphant return to Port Harcourt at the weekend, where he was greeted as a hero by thousands of people. A crowd came to see him step out of a government plane at the airport and others lined his route to the city. "Oil companies don't have a problem as long as the government meets our demands," Dokubo-Asari told his supporters. But some commentators predicted that if that was the case, the shaky truce would not hold for long. “If anyone is under the illusion that there would be peace in the Niger Delta on account of the ceasefire agreement signed in Abuja a few days ago, that would be a mistake,” said Reuben Abati, a columnist for the respected Nigerian Guardian newspaper. “What the government has succeeded in doing is to buy time and allay the fears of the oil multinationals,” he added. Other activist groups in the Delta campaigning for better access to oil profits of the world's seventh-largest producer, said they were either suspicious of the peace deal or dissatisfied it. “I have not seen much in the agreement to say the core demands of the Niger Delta people have been addressed,” said Ledum Mitee, president of the Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People, a civic organisation campaigning for a better deal for the small Ogoni ethnic group. He called on Obasanjo's government to show more sincerity and engage in meaningful dialogue.

There are some 250 ethnic groups in Nigeria

Activists from the Itsekiri tribe, whose gunmen have fought deadly battles with Ijaw gangs around the oil town of Warri in recent years, simply accused the government of caving in to terror tactics. “What the events show is that the capacity to unleash terror will determine the extent of recognition one will get from the government,” said Matthew Tsekure of the Itsekiri National Youth Council. “It portends great danger and we’re watching developments very carefully.” Smokescreen? He said the Itsekiris shared the broad vision of achieving self-determination and greater control over oil resources in their own area, but they feared that Dokubo-Asari was using these issues as a “smokescreen” to gain Ijaw ascendancy over other tribes in the region. Oronto Douglas, a lawyer, human rights activist and environmentalist and leading activist with the Ijaw Youths Council, a non-violent Ijaw pressure group to which Dokubo-Asari formerly belonged, sought to allay the Itsekiri fears. He called on the government to increase the chances of creating a lasting peace by broadening the dialogue to include all those among Nigeria's 250 ethnic groups who feel uncomfortable with the current state of the union. “The President can use this initiative to implement the sovereign national conference that will bring the various nationalities, various people’s movements together to redesign a new Nigeria that will be based on justice and good governance,” Douglas said. All eyes will be on the next meeting between the government and Dokubo-Asari to see whether the militia leader's broader demands are discussed. Dokubo Asari said the talks were scheduled to start on 8 October. The son of a former high court judge, Dokubo Asario went to university to study law, but dropped out in 1988 after converting to Islam. He then became swept up in radical politics and came to prominence in 2002 as president of the Ijaw Youths Council. Dakubo-Asari told IRIN in an interview earlier this year that he only decided to take up arms after witnessing massive fraud in the 2003 elections, which returned Obasanjo and the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) for a second term of office. He claimed the that the governor of Rivers State, which encompasses Port Harcourt, was offended by his lack of support and created Ateke Tom's Niger Delta Vigilante militia to eliminate him. Little is known about Tom, who shuns press interviews and has refused to make any statement on the feud between his group and that of Dokubo-Asari. The Rivers State government has denied any connection to Tom's group.