Unpredictable weather threatens food security

It's the time of year when floods or cyclones threaten to wreak havoc on Mozambique's predominantly rural population, while a drought in the south of the country could continue for a third consecutive year. Mozambique could even experience all three calamities – drought, cyclones and floods - in different parts of the country simultaneously. Stretching almost 1,600 km along the east coast of Africa and bordering six countries, since 2002 Mozambique has experienced normal harvests in the remote north, and poor crops in the parched south. In December the National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) presented its contingency plans and US $40 million budget to humanitarian partners. The emergency response strategy estimated that 1.3 million people in the coastal provinces of Nampula (north) and Inhambane (south) could be affected by cyclones this year, and another 875,000 are vulnerable to flooding in Nampula, as well as in the southern and central provinces of Maputo and Zambezia. The INGC also estimated that approximately 970,000 people could be threatened by drought, with Maputo, Tete and the provinces of Nampula and Cabo Delgado in the north at highest risk. Mozambique's meteorological institute has an early warning system, but "cyclones are difficult to predict", Nadia Vaz, disaster management officer for the World Food Programme (WFP) told IRIN. With a weak communication system and poor infrastructure, the impact of natural disasters can be devastating for one of the world's poorest countries. "These conditions are tricky for emergency preparedness," conceded Vaz. The government and humanitarian organisations have put in place emergency measures and are supporting farmers in their efforts to adapt to the unpredictable weather patterns. In 2003, WFP provided emergency food assistance for an average of 440,000 people per month who had been affected by drought. A multi-agency Vulnerability Assessment Committee confirmed in November that 659,000 people were "extremely food insecure" and unable to cope without continued emergency support until the March/April 2004 harvest. With poor rains in several southern districts yet again, nobody knows what that harvest will bring. Any worsening of the current humanitarian crisis would have a serious impact on already vulnerable people. "With the growing HIV/AIDS epidemic, the situation could become a major disaster," said Vaz. Some 13.6 percent of the population between the ages of 15 and 49 live with the virus. The HIV/AIDS prevalence rate is among the highest in the world, and the fastest growing in the region. There are an estimated 500 new HIV infections daily. Life is a constant struggle for survival for most Mozambicans, 60 percent of whom live in poverty. Yet, despite the setbacks, women like Amelia Magaia, the president of an agricultural cooperative, has not given up. She survived the country's 16-year civil war, the death of her husband and the floods of 2000, the worst in living memory. "The death of my husband was the saddest thing that happened to me," said Magaia. "I had to do everything by myself." Her husband, Salvador, died in 1989, after a year-long battle with cancer. His illness came at the height of the war between the government and Renamo rebels, which forced Magaia and her community to flee into the bush where they lived in reed huts. Salvador's death left Magaia with nine children to bring up alone. In February 2000, the crops on her cooperative farm were wiped out by the floods. "Our fields looked like the sea," said Magaia. In the last two years, drought has taken its toll. The family lives in a homestead on elevated land as a precaution against flooding. Although it is only a 30-minute drive to Maputo, the capital, newspapers do not reach her district - news reaches them mostly by word of mouth, not the best way to hear about impending disasters. Magaia is still the main breadwinner, although her son, Carlos, works in neighbouring South Africa. To add to her problems, last year she had to take care of her older brother, Angelo, who returned after years of working in South Africa, sick with tuberculosis and other HIV-related illnesses. He died last August. Yet, when IRIN visited her cooperative last week, Magaia proudly showed off the irrigation canals to the nearby river that she and the 63 other members had dug on 16 hectares of land, while participating in a 25-day food-for-work project. The canals will also drain the land if it gets flooded. "It was hard work," she said with a smile. Under the food-for-work schemes supported by WFP, the families receive 75 kilos of maize, four litres of oil and seven-and-a-half kilos of beans. Other NGOs, like Action Aid, have supported the cooperatives with watering cans, and sweet potatoes and cassava roots, which have the advantage of multiplying on their own. So far, the drought-resistant cassava and sweet potato crops look promising. To further secure their livelihood, Magaia has encouraged the cooperative members each to contribute 100,000 meticais (less than US $5) to buy the title to the land. So far, they have collected three million meticais of the almost six million they need. The hope now is that their efforts to secure their future will not shrivel up or be washed away. "My dream is just to continue to work on this land, to produce for my family and my country," said Magaia.