War and the bid for peace //Year ender//

War and political instability dominated events in the Great Lakes region of Africa throughout 2001 and may do so this year unless impressive strides are made to lower tensions, analysts say. "The Guerrilla wars would only be solved when the different governments of the Great Lakes initiate serious talk with the rebel groups," Claude Kambeba, of the Electoral Institute for Southern Africa, said. At the centre of this violent vortex lie events in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), into which Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and other countries have been drawn. Each has voiced security concerns as the reason for its troop presence in the DRC; and the possibility to redeploy there in large numbers remains, unless the international community can guarantee to eliminate the threat to their borders. For Rwanda, the threat comes from the Army for the Liberation of Rwanda, an amalgam of Interahamwe Hutu militia and the former Rwandan army (ex-FAR) that are widely acknowledged as perpetrators of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Kampala wants to neutralise threats of cross-border raids by its dissidents, the Allied Democratic Front and the National Army for the Liberation of Uganda. Although Rwanda and Uganda formed an alliance in the DRC, it eventually fell apart following clashes in Kisangani between their troops over what critics said was for the control of minerals and timber. Congolese President Joseph Kabila, who succeeded his assassinated father one year ago, has been unable or unwilling to corral and disarm Rwandan and Ugandan dissidents, thereby removing the threat to these two countries. As a result, Uganda and Rwanda have maintained their support to surrogates in eastern DRC. Kinshasa's inability to assert its control over a vast swath of the northern and eastern territories left the younger Kabila with an inherited and unsavory "alliance" with forces accused of the Rwandan genocide, and the Force for Defence of Democracy that operates against the Burundi government. However, although heavy dependence on Angolan, Namibian and Zimbabwean troops in defence of the eastern territories succeeded in putting some distance between Kinshasa and the Rwandan-backed dissidents, it briefly raised the spectre of clashes between Zimbabwean and Ugandan troops, or Zimbabwean and Rwandan troops, a regional media source, who asked to remain unnamed, told IRIN. Angola, which with Zimbabwe and Namibia rallied to support the government in Kinshasa, has its own security interests. A friendly and strong government in Kinshasa denies UNITA rear facilities in DRC. Given that the DRC government army was weak, it made good security sense for Luanda to send troops into the DRC in support of Kinshasa. They originally went there to support the deceased president Laurent-Desire Kabila. The inter-Congolese dialogue, sanctioned by the Lusaka peace accord of 1999, is seen as the most viable option to deciding the political future of the DRC. It was designed to bring together representtives from the government, the political opposition, armed opposition groups, and civil society to map out a future for the DRC. An attempt to hold the talks in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in October 2001 failed because of wrangles over participation and lack of money to bring all Congolese to the conference. These issues still plague organisers, and although South Africa has agreed to host the conference in the coming weeks, much funding promised by donors for the conference has still not been received. Furthermore, the issue of participation in the dialogue remains unresolved. The Banyamulenge (Congolese Tutsis) believe that the talks would be strengthened by the presence of representatives from the DRC's Kivu provinces, where the Banyamulenge reside. The group strongly opposes the presence of foreign forces in the DRC; and a Banyamulenge organisation, the Shikama Peace Initiative, opposes the inclusion of the Congolese Mayi-Mayi militia at the talks because of their alleged responsibility in "crimes against humanity" against Congolese Tutsis of the Kivus. Shikama President Francis Shyaka told IRIN in September that allowing the Mayi-Mayi to take part in the talks would amount to "supporting the legitimisation of the so-called negative forces", criticised in the Lusaka peace deal. However, the government in Kinshasa has backed the demand by the Mayi-Mayi, based in the Kivus on land mainly controlled by Rwandan-backed rebels, to take part in the talks. DRC Foreign Minister Leonard She Okitundu said in September 2001 that he felt Rwanda had moved closer to accepting the Mayi-Mayi as Congolese, rather than as one among other foreign armed groups in eastern DRC. "If Rwanda supported the initiative, it would be a plot to sabotage the inter-Congolese dialogue so as to justify the maintenance of its forces in DRC," Shyaka told IRIN in September. He also lamented that the status of the Banyamulenge and other minorities was not up for discussion at the talks. The Ugandan-backed Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie-Kisangani-Mouvement de liberation (RCD-K-ML), an offshoot of the Rwandan-backed RCD-Goma, is also demanding representation at the talks. Formed in May 1999, RCD-K-ML was not a signatory to the July 1999 Lusaka cease-fire agreement. The situation of RCD-K-ML is further complicated by power struggles within the rebel movement. Meanwhile, RCD-Goma is implementing a federal system of government in the areas under its control, stating that the geopolitical structure of the DRC would be central to any inter-Congolese peace and dialogue talks. Kabemba, of the Electoral Institute for Southern Africa, told IRIN that the talks must discuss the installing of a transitional government; choose its president; debate the integration of various fighting forces; and decide on a date, structure and the organizers of general elections. Despite the odds, there are nevertheless hopeful signs for eventual peace in the DRC. Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe have withdrawn large numbers of their troops from the DRC. The Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda, an anti-government militia that rejects any association with Interahamwe Hutu militias and the ex-FAR, said on 25 September it had agreed to disarm 3,000 of its "freedom fighters" in the southern DRC province of Katanga, in support of the peace process. Moreover, Rwandan-backed RCD-Goma forces and Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe met for the first time in September to discuss prospects for peace and the future of the DRC. Following the talks with Mugabe, RCD-Goma President Adolphe Onusumba said he "sensed a genuine willingness on the part of Mugabe to end the conflict". In addition, Kinshasa said it was ready to had over to Rwanda 6,000 Interahamwe militiamen and ex-FAR. Okitundu told the Rwanda News Agency in September that Kinshasa would "no longer accept" rebel groups from neighbouring countries to use the DRC as a launching pad for armed attacks against their home government. Interahamwe and ex-FAR had been fighting alongside Congolese troops, against local forces backed by Rwanda and Uganda that had been trying to topple the government in Kinshasa. This January, the tempo of activity ahead of the inter-Congolese dialogue has increased: Kagame has visited Angola in consolidation of the restoration of mutual trust with his former ally. Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos said he had taken into consideration the security issues Kagame raised. DRC President Joseph Kabila visited Luanda shortly afterward. Countries of the Southern African Development Community held a summit on Monday, 14 January, to discuss the Congolese crisis ahead of the rapidly-approaching inter-Congolese dialogue. Another main security concern in the Great Lakes remains Burundi, where a power-sharing transitional government of returned Hutus exiles and Tutsis was inaugurated on 1 November 2001. South Africa is trying to obtain a cease-fire between the government and two Hutu rebel groups: the Conseil Nationale pour la defense de la democratie-Forces pour la defense de la democratie and Front national de liberation. The results of this might become clearer after the protagonists meet later this month. Peace in DRC will undoubtedly influence the operation of anti-government forces in Burundi, since the Interahamwe have been aiding these Burundi rebels. South African Foreign Affairs Deputy Director-General Welile Nhlapo said negotiations were under way toward the formation of a new integrated Burundian army that would incorporate the rebels, the Sunday Times, a South African newspaper, reported. Nhlapo also said plans were being put in place for the South African National Defence Force to train a Burundian special force to take over the protection of returned Hutu exiles. Behind the political wrangling and conflict lies a trail of shattered lives and human misery. This was reflected by UN agencies' appeals in November for aid to these countries. The UN Country Team in Burundi and its partners said they needed US $107.86 million to implement humanitarian and rehabilitation programmes, presented in the consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal for 2002. In Burundi, one million people still depend on humanitarian aid. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that war and lack of maintenance had led to the "substantial deterioration" of health infrastructure, water and sanitation services. The plight of 432,000 Burundians in internal displacement sites "dominate the humanitarian agenda", it added. Help, it continued, was needed for 200,000 internally-displaced persons living under ad-hoc arrangements. At least another 380,000 people are refugees in Tanzania. In the DRC, two million people are displaced and 16 million are considered food insecure. UN agencies and their partners said they needed $194.14 million in funding for humanitarian relief and recovery work during 2002. "The fighting has led to appalling levels of hunger, disease and death, and to countless abuses of human rights," Kabemba said. The stark statistics of Burundi and DRC show the enormity of people's needs. Their plight can, perhaps, only be permanently eradicated when the actors in the region negate war as an instrument of political expression. The first real opportunity they have to do that will be at the inter-Congolese dialogue. Kabemba said additional efforts are needed. "What would really contribute to peace is a security conference to the Great Lakes Region. But this cannot happen with a divided Congo," he said.