Focus on the key to political stability

International and local analysts remain guarded on Tajikistan’s ability to weather the long transition to stability. They argue that the recent spate of hostage-taking and security incidents, fuelled by political and economic discontent, are timely reminders that Tajikistan has a long way to go before it can recover from the twin shocks of post-Soviet decline and civil war. “Tajiks have had enough of war,” Marc Gilbert, Ambassador to Tajikistan of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), told IRIN on Monday. The peaceful release of 15 aid workers in Tavildara, central Tajikistan, and several police officers taken hostage in Teppai Samarkandi, near the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, was testimony to this, he added. In its handling of the latest hostage crisis, the government had demonstrated an ability to act in unison, despite reports of internal frictions. “Throughout the latest crisis, the government spoke with one voice, and the former opposition leader [Sayed Nuri] made it clear that he would give these people no support whatsoever,” Gilbert maintained. The 22 June military operation against the renegade former opposition commander, Rakhmon Sanginov, in Teppai Samarkandi also portrayed a unified effort. “I think this is positive in the sense that the state can exercise its authority without having a barrier of alliances with diverging interests,” he said. However, Gilbert did express some concern over the peace agreement. Firstly, there had been a recent change in the original agreement, with a dilution of the number of former opposition ministers in favour of President Rahmonov’s party. For whatever reasons, this shift in political power had not led to a dramatic reaction, such as a rearming, by the former opposition, he added. A second worrying development had been moves by the Tajik administration to block political access to political parties other than the president’s. There was concern as to whether this tendency would lead to the recreation of a Soviet-style one-party system, Gilbert said. Third, the separation of the legislative, executive, judiciary and media authorities had yet to take place. “Action needs to be taken for the legislative power to distance itself from the executive power, and for the judiciary power to be totally independent,” he explained. One local analyst told IRIN that it was still early days, and that the aftermath of any war would take time to recover from. Reports of friction within President Emomali Rahmonov’s coalition government were not thought to threaten the peace process, and socioeconomic and judicial reforms were being pursued as the only means of attracting international support and drawing Tajikistan out of its destitution. He added, however, that the shift of dispossessed former opposition commanders towards criminal activities for commercial rather than political reasons was taxing the fledgling government’s ability to exercise the rule of law, particularly in the more isolated mountain regions. The last four years had seen an upsurge in criminal activity, mainly drug trafficking and racketeering, while former opposition commanders had resorted to hostage-taking as a means of coercing the authorities, he said. The UN Secretary-General’s Representative in Tajikistan, Ivo Petrov, told IRIN on Tuesday that he did not think the peace process would suffer as a result of the activities of renegade commanders. “The Tajikistan of 2001 is not the same as two or three years ago,” he said. Four years after the signing of the peace agreement, his view was that the incidents were surmountable. Petrov maintained that in fact the prolonged impoverishment of the Tajik population constituted the most serious threat to the political situation. With a staggering 80 percent of Tajik society living on less than US $12 per month, he said, continued political stability was directly linked to relief aid and development activities. In this light, the pledging of US $430 million for Tajikistan by international donors in Tokyo last month was a major step forward for Tajikistan. “These pledges will give a boost to the economy and a fresh injection of capital,” he said. This being double the sum committed last year, Petrov said, the country could now embark on an urgently needed rehabilitation of its infrastructure. The Tokyo donor commitments were seen as a crucial interim step towards economic revival, until donor countries and independent investors eventually showed an interest in the country. But this was unlikely to happen in the near future. “You cannot jump from a country that has been ruined by civil war to private business investments. Investors are still cautious, and the country is still in the aftermath of conflict and in a severe situation,” he said. The positive donor response at the Tokyo meeting was encouraging as it had demonstrated a recognition that Tajikistan was key to regional stability. But continued international support was vital to the country’s future, Petrov cautioned. “This was the message that I tried to convey to donors in Tokyo - that political stability in Tajikistan depends on continued humanitarian and development support. Of course, it also depends on its leaders and people. I hope this country is given the chance,” he said.