IRIN Focus on presidential campaign

[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations] Senegal's eight-man presidential race is being fought over the urgent need for change, with two opposition alliances and various individual parties seeking to sweep away the Parti Socialiste (PS) that has ruled since independence from France in 1960. PS leader Abdou Diouf, who is running for re-election, has formidable foes. One of them is Abdoulaye Wade of the Parti Democratique Senegalais (PDS), who leads a nine-party alliance of mostly leftist orientation called the Coalition Alternance 2000. Another is Moustapha Niasse, head of the Alliance des Forces du Progres (AFP), which has eight parties under its wing. Yet another main contender is Djibo Ka who, like Niasse, was once a PS stalwart, but broke away to form the Union pour le Renouveau Democratique (URD). Political analysts say the need for change is the central debate in this campaign. A professor of political science and law at Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar, Babacar Gueye, told IRIN the opposition wanted to legitimise the state, fight crime and bring more social and economic benefits to the public. "All parties are for change, including the PS," he said. "All parties are conscious that Senegal is, undoubtedly, badly governed. There are many difficulties linked to the economic crisis, and the crisis of the state." The URD seeks to bring balance and credibility to state institutions because, it says, power is centred in the executive. As such, the URD proposes a separation of powers between the executive, the legislature and an independent judiciary. "The president of the republic concentrates all power in his hands. He is practically a demi-God," Marcel Mendy, the URD spokesman said. "We want a restoration of parliamentary democracy where the leader of the majority in parliament becomes, ipso facto, head of government." In addition, the URD wants an independent national electoral commission to oversee polls at all levels. The ruling socialist party's billboards declare that "together we will change Senegal". Just how, it does not say and cynics claim the PS has had since independence to do so. Gueye noted that while Diouf admits to shortcomings in his government, the need to fight corruption and poverty, the Senegalese president says there have been recent notable gains which help rank Senegal among the 20 countries with the strongest economic growth in Africa. The government puts inflation at less than 2 percent and economic growth at 5 percent. It estimates that 47,000 jobs have been created a year since a promise in 1993 to provide at least 20,000 a year. The opposition is sceptical. "He has done nothing," Mendy said. "There are one hundred thousand job seekers in the market each year." Gueye argues that had Senegal created so many jobs a year, "we would have seen the effect". Rather, he said, poverty and filth have increased, and the capital is in bad shape. "Perhaps there has been five percent growth in the economy but the population does not see the effects of this, neither individually nor on the level of improving infrastructure," Gueye said, "and this will be Abdou Diouf's challenge if re-elected: to ensure the population benefits from this growth." Contentious campaign issues Cheating has long been a tradition in Senegal's electoral life, according to Gueye, as is a tradition of collusion between the administration and the ruling party. As a result, the opposition has no confidence in the administration because civil servants prepare the electoral list. Niasse, of the AFP, claims that 600,000 of his supporters were removed from the voters' list with the intent of replacing them with PS supporters. The opposition believes the government sent the tampered list to Israel, where it was used in connection with the printing of voters cards. The opposition charges that the Ministry of the Interior sent the list without its knowledge or that of the national electoral observation body, ONEL, which protested to the ministry. Only President Diouf, a candidate for re-election, was informed, the opposition charges. The ministry maintains that the document was sent to Israel because a company there could provide foolproof prints. Only intervention by civil society has saved the electoral process from paralysis. Threats by Abdoulaye Wade to boycott the voters' cards have subsided since the government agreed to opposition demands that the electoral list be audited by an independent body of computer specialists to remove all dubious entries. Rectification of the list is due for completion by 24 February, Elhadj Mbodj, a member of ONEL (Observatoire National des Elections) told IRIN. However, he said "the Israeli-printed voters cards are legal and have been distributed." Risk of electoral violence Tension underlies campaigning and analysts say perceptions of electoral fraud, already roused by the issue of the voters' list, are likely to lead to violence. "There is strong opposition to fraud, "Alioune Tine, secretary-general of the Rencontre africaine des Droits de l'Homme (RADDHO - a human rights body) told IRIN. The fear of violence was borne out by clashes on Tuesday between PS and PDS supporters in the northern city of St Louis. In addition, one newspaper has reported a religious leader, Mamoune Niasse of the AFP's chapter in the city of Kaolack, as threatening to burn Senegal. "We will set Senegal aflame and burn the (electoral) thieves if cheating is discovered," 'Sud Quotidien', a daily newspaper, on Tuesday reported Niasse as saying. He said militants were ready to "put their lives on the line" to stop electoral fraudsters. Analysts say certain opposition parties are not discounting the possiblity of a coup in the event of massive fraud and a breakdown of law and order. In the event of this, they say, the military must assume its responsibility to clean up and organise new elections. The Islamic factor An overlooked dimension of the campaign is the Islamic factor, Penda Mbow, a professor of history in the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at UCAD, told IRIN. Cheikh Abdoulaye Dieye of the powerful Mouride Muslim brotherhood leads the Front pour le Socialisme et la Democratie/Bennon Jubel (FSD/BJ). Leaders of groups like Dieye's, Mbow said, have been fighting for the inclusion of Islam in the political arena or to set up Islamic states. "These are groups that get funds from outside the country," she said, adding that the money comes from Saudi Arabia and institutions like the World Islamic League. "It's a form of imperialism and a way to penetrate Africa because everyone knows that it's through the cultural factor that one can enter a country and establish strong economic relations," Mbow said. The rise in political Islam, she said, explains the slowdown in Senegal's political advance. Now certain party leaders, noticing the rise of Islam in politics, are playing the religious card for their own political ends. Presidential candidate Iba Der Thiam, who heads the CDF/Garab Gi, is always speaking on Islam and this dimension is important for him, Mbow said. In addition, she said, Thiam's position that Senegal's greatest thinkers were Islamic scholars "is very dangerous". Mbow said the intrusion of political Islam - which commands considerable economic clout in Senegal - might mean the end of a secular state in the West African nation of some 10 million people, the vast majority of them Muslims.